016
FXUS63 KDLH 101214
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
714 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Less muggy and a little cooler for the next few days.

- Isolated to scattered showers north-central Minnesota, plus
  some rumbles of thunder over northwest Wisconsin.

- Periodic shower and thunderstorm chances return for next week
  along with near normal temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 323 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

The cold front slowly sliding through the area yesterday and
overnight has stalled over northwest Wisconsin, and may cause
some showers and storms there late this morning through the
afternoon hours. There is enough instability for some rumbles of
thunder, but not enough for stronger storms. Behind the front,
a much more comfortable airmass has moved into the area. High
temperatures today over northern Minnesota will on the be in the
mid 70s to around 80, instead of the warmer temps we have had
the last few days. The cooler airmass moving in will bring
overnight low temps down to near or below 60 for the first time
in several days. The cold front finally moves east of the
forecast area by Monday.

The main upper low which has been the main driver of this
rather active pattern will push another shortwave through the
area late Monday into Tuesday. The generally drier airmass which
has moved into the area should keep instability from building
up. While we should get some afternoon and night time showers
and thunderstorms, the probability of severe weather is low.

The upper level trough shifts east, allowing a flattish ridge
to build in for Wednesday. Additional short waves will move
through the upper level flow beginning Thursday through next
weekend, bringing chances for showers and thunderstorms. There
are some indications there may be some chances in the region for
strong to severe storms Thursday into Friday. This pattern will
also allow heat to build back into the area, with temperatures
creeping back above normal for Friday into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 714 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

IFR Stratus clouds lingering over northwest WI and adjoining
areas of MN this morning as of issuance time. Many areas of
reduced visibility, but not at KHYR, which has remained VFR for
visibility so far. Expect a gradual improvement in ceilings and
visibilities over the next few hours, with all sites returning
to VFR by mid morning. There are also some IFR/low MVFR stratus
around Lake of the Woods that may spread into KINL this morning,
and have included a tempo group for a few hours until those
cloud bases should lift as well. All the other TAF sites should
primarily remain VFR with diurnal cumulus for much of Sunday.
There may be scattered showers and perhaps an embedded
thunderstorm near KHYR and also KINL this afternoon, but the
chances are too low to include in the TAF at this time. There
are indications of fog once again after 09z tonight for KHYR,
and have included MVFR visibilities and IFR ceilings for now.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 323 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

A cold front which has moved through the area yesterday and
overnight will cause winds to be southwesterly and continue
through at least Monday, mostly from 5 to 15 knots. A period of
stronger southwest winds of up to 20 knots will develop along
the North Shore north of Taconite Harbor this afternoon, causing
locally built up waves. A Small Craft Advisory does not appear
needed at this time. The winds begin to veer into the west on
Tuesday, but mostly in the 5 to 15 knot range with waves of less
than 2 feet.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for MNZ038.
WI...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for WIZ001-006.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LE
AVIATION...LE
MARINE...LE