885
FXXX12 KWNP 081231
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2025 Jul 08 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
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#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached moderate levels due to an isolated M2.4 flare at
08/0417 UTC from a Region just beyond the NE limb near N22, possibly the
return of old 4115 (N22, L=022). This unnumbered region and Region 4127
(S20W72, Dai/beta) contributed to the majority of the C-class flare
activity over the last 24 hours. Slight growth was observed in Region
4127 and newly numbered 4135 (S09E69, Cao/beta). The remaining active
regions were either stable or in decay. No Earth-directed CMEs were
observed.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with an increased chance for
M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) due to activity from an unnumbered
region rotating around the NE limb near N22. Possibly the return of old
Region 4115 (N22, L=022).

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal
to moderate levels over 08-10 Jul. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux
is expected to persist at background levels through 10 Jul barring any
significant flares from the regions in the western hemisphere.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters reflected continued but waning influences from a
negative polarity CH HSS. The total magnetic field has been trending
down from a peak of 14 nT at 07/0209 UTC to around 8 nT, with the Bz
component oscillating between +/-8 nT. Solar wind speeds peaked at 640
km/s at 07/2051 UTC and have slowly declined to near 530 km/s.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to remain elevated through 08 Jul as
HSS activity persists. Nominal solar wind conditions are anticipated to
return by 09-10 Jul.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to active levels due to
persistent CH HSS activity.

.Forecast...
Geomagnetic activity is expected to continue at unsettled to active
levels, with a chance for G1 (Minor), as CH HSS influence diminishes on
08 Jul. Mostly quiet conditions are anticipated on 09-10 Jul with the
return of nominal solar wind parameters.