Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
814 FXXX12 KWNP 171231 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2025 Apr 17 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity has been at low levels with mostly minor C-class flaring through the period. Region 4062 (S02E53, Dko/beta-gamma) produced most of the activity in this summary period. The region has a complex leader with a simple trailer but its clear given the magnetic arcades that they are connected rather than two individual regions. It appears to have a delta in the leader but the magnetic field is still being distorted by foreshortening to have confidence in that classification. New Regions 4064 (S08E74, Dao/beta) and 4065 (S29E78, Hax/alpha) were numbered and were unremarkable. There have been no CMEs observed in available coronagraph imagery. .Forecast... Although Regions 4062 and 4064 have been relatively quiet they are more structurally complex than anticipated. Will maintain a 60% chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) flare activity through 19 Apr. Chances for X-class (Strong) flare activity remain around 10%. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at both geostationary satellites has been suppressed following the arrival of a CME around 15/1630 UTC. The flux has been around normal to moderate levels and is starting to trend slightly upward starting around 16/2000 UTC as wind speeds start to ease towards 475 km/s. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux has been at background. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is likely to rebound following the passing of the CME, whose influence is expected to wane early 17 Apr. Flux will likely rise during the diurnal maxima towards the 1000 pfu threshold. With such simple regions in the western hemisphere, the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... The solar wind parameters remained enhanced throughout the period from the CME associated with three filament eruptions on 13 Apr. The interplanetary magnetic field (Bt) reached a peak of 24.7 nT at 16/0237 UTC and has since settled at 10-15 nT. The Bz component was in the sustained southward direction until 16/1945 UTC before rotating northward for the remainder of the period. Solar wind speeds have been between ~480-520 km/s. There has been stable/steady rotation in the phi angle. .Forecast... Solar wind parameters are likely to remain slightly enhanced through 17 Apr due to ongoing influences from the current CME. CME effects are expected to wane late on 17 Apr, but parameters are expected to continue to be elevated through 18 Apr as the equatorial negative polarity CH becomes geoeffective. Geospace .24 hr Summary... Persistent southward Bz allowed the field to reach G4 (Severe) geomagnetic storm levels during the 18-21 synoptic period. G1 (Minor) to G3 (Moderate) conditions were also observed. Quiet to active levels have been observed during the 17 Apr UT day. .Forecast... G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming is likely to continue, with a slight chance for an isolated G2 (Moderate) storming period, late on 17 Apr as CME influences wane. Unsettled to active levels are expected on 18 Apr followed by quiet to unsettled conditions on 19 Apr.