090
FXXX12 KWNP 081231
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2025 Jan 08 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
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#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar flare activity was at moderate levels due to an M1.1 flare at
07/2305 UTC, likely from old Region 3939 (S17, L=084) just beyond the SW
limb. AR 3950 (S18E16, Cso/beta) produced a C9.8 at 08/0637. AR 3947
(N12W02, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) and AR 3945 (S10W30, Dai/beta) also
produced C-class activity. AR 3947 continues to be the largest region on
the disk while being stable and showing separation between its leader
and trailer portions. All other regions were stable or in decay.

There were no Earth-directed CMEs observed in available coronagraph
imagery.

.Forecast...
R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely, with a slight chance
for isolated R3 (Strong) or greater events through 10 Jan. This is based
on the magnetic complexity and persistent activity of Region 3947.

Energetic Particles

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak
flux of 3,070 Pfu at 07/1850 UTC.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux returned to background levels
following an S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm that ended on 05/0940 UTC.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to
high levels on 08-10 Jan.

A slight chance for S1 (Minor) solar radiation storming will persist
through 10 Jan as multiple CME producing regions transit and exit the
western limb.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
A slightly enhanced solar wind environment continued due to the effects
of positive polarity coronal holes in the western hemisphere. The total
field was between 4-7 nT with a variable Bz component between +/-5 nT.
The phi angle remained primarily in the positive (away from the Sun)
orientation throughout the period. Wind speed briefly increased near 640
km/s between ~07/0440-1300 UTC but has since declined to near 450 km/s.

.Forecast...
The enhanced solar wind environment will persist with gradual weakening
through 08 Jan with a trend towards ambient levels 09 Jan. There is a
slight chance for a glancing blow due to a CME that left the disk on 04
Jan. Confidence is low in its arrival but an enhancement of the field
for a brief period will follow if it does arrive.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels.

.Forecast...
Quiet to unsettled conditions will continue into 08 Jan as the influence
of the positive polarity CH HSS decreases. Mostly quiet conditions are
expected thereafter into 09-10 Jan.