Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
488 FXXX12 KWNP 180031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2024 Nov 18 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was at low levels. The largest flare of the period was a C5.3 at 17/1059 UTC, which was off the eastern limb of the visible disk. The following spot groups were numbered this period: Region 3897 (S12W47, Cao/beta), Region 3898 (S15E19, Cao/beta), and Region 3899 (S13E60, Bxo/beta). Regions 3894 (N23E02, Axx/alpha) and 3895 (S03W49, Axx/alpha) had significant decay. The remaining spot regions were largely stable. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available imagery. .Forecast... There is a chance for isolated R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts, with a slight chance for R3 (Strong) events, on 18 Nov. R1-R2 radio blackouts are likely, with a slight chance for R3, on 19-20 Nov, due to the rapid development of several new regions. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels and the greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. .Forecast... The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain near background levels over 18-20 Nov. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels, with a slight chance to reach high levels, through 20 Nov. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... The solar wind environment reflected persistent CH HSS influence. Total field was primarily 7-9 nT. The Bz component fluctuated between southward and northward orientations, with a max southward component of -7 nT. Solar wind speeds ranged ~315 to ~360 km/s and phi was predominantly positive. .Forecast... Enhancements in the solar wind environment are expected to persist though 19 Nov due to positive polarity CH HSS influence and possible glancing CME influences primarily on 18 Nov, returning to ambient solar wind conditions on 20 Nov. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels due to CH HSS influence. .Forecast... Quiet to active levels are expected on 18-19 Nov as another positive polarity CH HSS moves into a geoeffective position, and an outside possibility of grazing influences from the 14 Nov CME. Mostly quiet conditions are expected to return by 20 Nov as CH HSS influence diminishes.