Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
414 FXXX12 KWNP 061231 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2025 Apr 06 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity reached moderate levels following an isolated M1.0 flare, the largest flare of the period, from Region 4048 (S16W21, Fkc/beta-gamma) at 05/2005 UTC. This region added several low-level C-class flares as well. Region 4043 (N18, L=050) was the only other region that contributed to the flare activity adding low-level C-class flares. Region 4050 (N27W45, Cao/beta) and newly numbered Regions 4054 (S12E14, Dao/beta) and 4055 (N09E27, Bxo/beta) all observed growth during the period. The remaining regions were either stable or exhibited slight decay during the period. New Region 4056 (S05E76, Hsx/alpha) was numbered. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery. .Forecast... Solar activity is likely to be moderate on 06-08 Apr with decreasing chances for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts. There is a slight chance for X-class flares (R3, Strong radio blackouts) on 06-08 Apr. Energetic Particles .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels, seeing a peak value of 2,350 pfu. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels, with high levels likely on 06-08 Apr due to CH HSS influence. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to be at background levels on 06-08 Apr. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters remained enhanced due to negative polarity CH HSS influences. Total field gradually decreased slightly from 13 nT to approximately 10 nT. The Bz component generally ranged from +5 nT to -7 nT. Solar wind speed data was highly contaminated as density levels dropped to near zero. Overall trends indicated that speeds were likely between 500-600 km/s, possibly reaching an isolated peak over 700 km/s. Phi angle was in a negative orientation throughout the majority of the period. .Forecast... Solar wind parameters are expected to see persistent HSS influence and grazing influences from the 03 Apr CME on 06 Apr. Enhancements are likely to continue through 07-08 Apr as one negative polarity moves from a geoeffective position and another moves in. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field ranged from active levels to G1 (Minor) conditions. The increased activity was likely due to combined CME and and negative polarity CH HSS effects. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field is expected to see isolated G1 (Minor) storm conditions on 06 Apr due to persistent CH HSS effects and possible transient influences. Unsettled to active levels are likely by midday, continuing through 07-08 Apr, as a separate negative polarity CH HSS moves into a geoeffective position.