Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
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331
FXXX12 KWNP 160031
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2025 Oct 16 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
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#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity continued at moderate levels due to M-class flare
activity from Region 4246 (N22W56, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta). Notable flares
included an M4.8/2n at 15/0415 UTC, an M3.7/1n at 15/0718 UTC, a long
duration M1.1 flare that peaked at 15/1410 UTC, another long duration
M2.7 flare at 15/2228 UTC, and an M2.4 flare at 15/2345 UTC. The M4.8
flare had an associated CME off the NW limb in coronagraph imagery
beginning at 15/0436 UTC. Modeling efforts showed the ejecta to be on a
northward trajectory and not on an Earthward course. The M1.1 flare had
an associated Tenflare (peaking at 180 sfu at 15/1524 UTC) observed by
SAG USAF RSTN radio stations, as well as two CMEs off the W and NW
beginning at 15/1512 UTC. Modelling is underway to determine if there
are Earth-directed components. The M2.7 flare also appeared to have
ejecta associated with it as seen in SUVI 195 imagery at 15/2200 UTC.
Analysis will be conducted as coronagraph imagery becomes available.

Region 4246 also produced multiple C-class flares in the past 24h, as it
grew and matured its intermediary spots. Region 4248 (N07W27,
Eki/beta-gamma-delta) presented no significative change in size or
magnetic complexity. Region 4250 (N07W21, Hrx/alpha) continued to decay
and lost its trailing spot. Region 4252 (S13E28, Cao/beta) developed a
little trailing spot as it rotated towards the center of the solar disk.
Region 4254 (N10E60, Hsx/alpha) showed no significant change.

.Forecast...
Minor to moderate (R1-R2) radio blackouts are likely through 18 Oct,
with a slight chance for an isolated R3 (Strong) event, due to the
current and potential flare activity of Regions 4246 and 4248.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a maximum
flux of 2,850 pfu observed at 15/1540 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux remained at background levels during this period.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to decrease to normal
to moderate levels on 16 Oct with the CME arrivals and rebound to
moderate to high levels on 17-18 Oct. There is a slight chance for a
greater than 10 MeV proton event above the S1 (Minor) levels through 18
Oct.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar Wind parameters were slowly returning to nominal levels as the
effect of the negative CH HSS waned. Total interplanetary magnetic field
remained at or below 6 nT level during the whole period, with the Bz
component between +3/-4 nT. Phi angle was predominantly in the negative
sector, as expected during the negative CH HSS influence. Solar wind
speeds slowly decreased from about 550 km/s to 485 km/s level.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to continue gradually waning over the
course of 16 Oct as the influence of negative CH HSS reduces. Disturbed
solar wind conditions are expected by late on 16 Oct, and continuing
through 17 Oct, due to CME arrivals from 11-13 Oct originating from AR
4246.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
Geomagnetic field activity was quiet to unsettled with an isolated
active period.

.Forecast...
Geomagnetic field activity will likely reach G2 (Moderate) storm levels
late on 16 Oct in response to CMEs that left the Sun over the course of
11-13 Oct affecting the near-Earth environment. G1 (Minor) geomagnetic
storm activity is then likely to carry over into 17 Oct. Quiet to
unsettled conditions are expected to prevail on 18 Oct as any post CME
effects wane.