Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
194 FXXX12 KWNP 060031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2025 Aug 06 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity reached moderate levels due to multiple R1 (Minor) flares, both originating from Region 4168 (N06W09, Dac/beta-gamma-delta). The first flare was an M1.1 at 05/0212 UTC and the second was an M4.4 at 05/1553 UTC. The M4.4 had a 200 pfu Tenflare, a Type II radio sweep with a velocity of 865 km/s as reported by the Sagamore Hill radio observatory as well as a Type IV. The region remains the most complex with significant flux emergence in its trailing region. Dimming in SUVI-195 imagery indicates there was an ejection of plasma surrounding the M4.4 flare. The CME that is observed in coronagraph imagery starting around 05/1700 UTC is very diffuse - imagery indicates most of the disturbance is shock with a small driver becoming aparent around 05/1900 UTC. Modelling is ongoing. The second most complex region and the largest is Region 4167 (N11W77, Ehi/beta-gamma) but despite its size, it produced only a single flare - a C4.4 at 05/1939 UTC - throughout the period. Region 4165 (N12W09, Dso/beta) saw growth in its trailing region. A new region is starting to emerge near S17W25, rapid flux emergence moving into a circular configuration would indicate higher chances for flaring. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to continue at moderate levels with a chance for M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate), and a slight chance for R3 (Strong), over 06-08 Aug. Higher probabilities are being driven by the complexity and current activity of Region 4168. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... Under waning coronal hole (CH) high speed stream (HSS) influence, the greater than 2 MeV electron flux on GOES-19 was moderate during its diurnal maxima. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels through the period. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 06-08 Aug. Barring any significant flaring, the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels during this same time. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters reflected continued influence from the negative polarity CH HSS. Total field ranged 2-8 nT and the Bz component was +/- 7 nT. Solar wind speeds averaged near 460-470 km/s. Phi was predominantly negative, with brief periods into the positive. .Forecast... Enhanced solar wind parameters are expected to see waning conditions 06 Aug. Nominal solar wind conditions are expected through 08 Aug. The large, southern hemisphere positive CH is expected to become geoeffective late 08 Aug, but exact timing of arrival of the co-rotating interacting region ahead of the HSS is uncertain. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field remained at quiet to unsettled levels. .Forecast... Quiet conditions are expected 06-08 Aug as CH HSS influence transitions to an ambient solar wind regime. Geomagnetic field is expected to become active late 08 Aug due to the next CH HSS but timing is uncertain.