081
FXXX12 KWNP 280031
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2025 Mar 28 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
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#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached moderate levels with an M2.0 flare at 27/0037 UTC
from Region 4043 (N14E28, Dai/beta). Flux continued to emerge within the
region has increased its length and number of interior spots. It was
also responsible for C-class flares. Numerous C-class flares were
observed from behind the E limb. New Regions 4044 (N21E48, Bxo/beta) and
4045 (S14E77, Hsx/alpha) were numbered. Many of the remaining regions
have decayed to plage.

A faint CME off the NE was observed in LASCO C2 imagery at 27/0423 UTC.
The possible source was associated with a C3.9 flare at 27/0301 UTC from
Region 4043. Model analysis for any potential Earth-directed component
is ongoing. No other Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available
imagery.

.Forecast...
Given the reduced number of regions, flare activity is expected to
remain low with continued C-class flares. There is a chance (25%) for
isolated M-class (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) activity through 30 Mar.
Chances for X-class (R3 Strong) remains very low (1-5%) through 30
Mar.

Energetic Particles

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES-16 was at mostly
normal levels, around 10 pfu throughout the period. The greater than 10
MeV electron flux was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The arrival of the CH HSS is expected to bring an influx of electrons to
geostationary orbit through 30 Mar. Strong winds (currently near 800
km/s) will compress the Van Allen belts which will decrease observed
electrons by the GOES satellite. As winds ease the flux will rebound
towards or above the 1000 pfu threshold.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background
levels barring any notable flares from Region 4036 which will remain in
a favorable position on the west limb 27 Mar.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters remain enhanced due to the arrival of a positive
polarity CH HSS. Total field strength peaked early in the period at 18
nT, but decayed to near 5-7 nT at periods end. The Bz component rotated
from about +/- 10 nT throughout the period. Wind speeds became enhanced
from about 600 km/s early to about 850-875 km/s at 07-08 UTC. Speeds
decreased to about 750-800 km/s by periods end. The phi angle was
predominately positive.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced on 28 Mar due to
continued positive polarity CH HSS influence. Slowly waning effects are
likely on 29-30 Mar.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at active to G1 (Minor) storm levels due to
positive polarity CH HSS influences.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field will continue to experience periods of G1 (Minor)
storm levels through 28 Mar due to positive polarity CH HSS influence.
Waning effects are likely to begin early on 29 Mar with active
conditions persisting. Mostly unsettled levels are expected on 30 Mar as
CH HSS effects continue to wane.