Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
362 FXXX12 KWNP 120031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2025 Jul 12 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was at low levels with only C-class flares observed. New Region 4140 (S15E73, Cao/beta) produced the majority of the C-class activity this period, the largest of which was a C8.0 flare at 11/1711 UTC. Region 4138 (N28W13, Dai/beta) grew rapidly this period while minor growth was noted in Region 4136 (N19E40, Dai/beta-gamma-delta). No Earth-directed CMEs were detected in available imagery. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flare (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) activity over 12-14 Jul. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 1,670 pfu observed at 11/0025 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels over 12-14 Jul. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels through 14 Jul. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters became elevated after ~11/0030 UTC in response to the onset of a CIR preceding positive polarity CH HSS influence. Total field strength reached 14 nT and the Bz component reached as far south as -11 nT. Solar wind speeds increased from a low of ~330 km/s to a peak near 500 km/s after ~11/0440 UTC. Phi angle was positive throughout the period. .Forecast... Elevated solar wind parameters are expected to persist over 12-14 Jul due to positive polarity CH HSS influence. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field reached active levels in response to CIR and positive polarity CH HSS influence. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field is expected to reach active to G1 (Minor) levels on 12 Jul, active to G1 (Minor) storm levels on 13 Jul and quiet to unsettled levels on 14 Jul due to positive polarity CH HSS influence.