726
FXXX12 KWNP 061231
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2025 Dec 06 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
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#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels. Region 4294 (S15W16,
Fkc/beta-gamma-delta) produced a C6.4 flare at 03/0309 UTC, the largest
of the period. Both Regions 4294 and 4296 (S14E03, Eki/beta) remained
the largest on the visible disk despite slight decay in overall area in
the past 24 hours. Only minor changes were observed in the other
numbered active regions. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in
available coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
M-class flares are likely over 06-08 Dec, with a slight chance for
X-class flares, given past flare history and the potential of current
active regions on the disk.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux in geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels with a peak flux of 1,430 pfu observed at 05/1735 UTC. The
greater than 10 MeV proton flux in geosynchronous orbit remained at
background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue to reach
high levels over 06-08 Dec due to elevated solar wind speeds associated
with the ongoing CH HSS.

A slight chance exists for a greater than 10 MeV proton flux enhancement
above 10 pfu (S1-Minor) through 08 Dec due to the eruptive potential of
multiple active regions across the visible disk.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters reflected the ongoing influence of a negative
polarity CH HSS. Total magnetic field strength was between 4-8 nT. The
Bz component briefly reached as far south as -6 nT. Solar wind speeds
varied mostly between ~600-700 km/s. Phi angle was predominantly
oriented in the negative solar sector.

.Forecast...
The solar wind environment is expected to remain enhanced by the
negative polarity coronal hole HSS over 06-07 Dec. An additional
enhancement is likely late on 07 Dec and in to 08 Dec due to glancing
effects from a CME that left the Sun on 04 Dec.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
Geomagnetic activity was at quiet to active levels due to negative
polarity coronal hole influences.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is likely to reach active levels over 06 Dec
as influence from the coronal hole slowly wanes. G1 (Minor) geomagnetic
storm levels are likely on 07-08 Dec due to the anticipated onset of
influence from the periphery of a CME that left the Sun on 04 Dec.