855
FXXX12 KWNP 100031
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2025 Jan 10 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar flare activity reached moderate levels due to an M1.1 flare at
09/0026 UTC from Region 3947 (N12W22, Ekc/beta-gamma). Region 3947 and
Region 3950 (S18W05, Cso/beta) each produced C-class activity as well.
All other numbered regions were relatively stable. Two new spotted
regions emerged at approximately N07E40 and S31W40. We await further
observations before assigning region numbers.

A 13 degree filament appears to have lifted off in SUVI imagery
beginning around 09/1030 UTC. Any accompanying CME will be analyzed once
coronagraph imagery becomes available.

.Forecast...
R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely, with a slight chance
for isolated R3 (Strong) or greater events through 12 Jan. This is
largely based on the magnetic complexity and persistent activity of
Region 3947.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak
flux of 1,520 pfu at 09/1055 UTC due to the persistent influence of a
coronal hole high speed stream.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to
high levels on 10-12 Jan due to the waning and waxing influence of two
coronal hole high speed streams.

A slight chance for S1 (Minor) solar radiation storming will persist
through 12 Jan as multiple CME producing regions transit and exit the
western limb.


Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
The solar wind environment was at nominal levels for the first half of
the period, then became enhanced after 09/0900 UTC. Total
field reached a peak of 10 nT at 09/1428 UTC, with a variable Bz that
had a few sustained periods of southward/negative orientation around -8
to -10 nT. The solar wind speed averaged 400 km/s. The phi angle had a
short interval of negative orientation around 09/1000 UTC and was
otherwise in a positive orientation.

.Forecast...
The solar wind parameters are likely to remain enhanced through  10-12
Jan, as the high speed stream associated with positive polarity
coronal holes 06 and 07 starts becoming geoeffective.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled conditions
on 10-11 Jan, with a chance for an isolated active period. Conditions
are expected to be active, a chance for G1 (minor) storming conditions,
on 12 Jan, as another high speed stream becomes geoeffective.