Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
964 FXXX12 KWNP 091231 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2025 Mar 09 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity continued its retreat to low levels. Region 4012 (S14W29, Eai/beta-gamma) produced the vast majority of the weak, low-level C-class flare activity, while the largest event observed was a long-duration C3.9 at 08/1825 UTC from a region not yet rotated onto the disk. New Region 4020 (N18E46, Hax/alpha) rotated into view from the NE limb and was numbered. All other numbered regions on the visible disk were relatively inactive and unchanged. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery. .Forecast... A chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts will persist through 11 Mar primarily due to the flare potential of Region 4012. Energetic Particles .24 hr Summary... The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels. The 2 MeV electron flux remained at normal to moderate levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels through 11 Mar. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels through 11 Mar. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... The solar wind environment was indicative of a negative polarity CH HSS regime. Solar wind speed gradually increased from just under 500 km/s to ~700 km/s. Total field was variable, mostly between 8-18 nT, but did reach a peak of near 19 nT at 08/1606 UTC. Bz was predominantly negative, seeing a maximum southward deflection to -14 nT at 08/1538 UTC. Phi was solidly in a negative orientation. .Forecast... An enhanced solar wind environment is expected through 09-10 Mar as the negative polarity CH influences endure. Conditions are expected to slowly diminish by 11 Mar. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field began the period at quiet levels before increasing to G1 (minor) conditions and, eventually, G2 (moderate) geomagnetic storm levels. .Forecast... Unsettled to active conditions are expected on 09 Mar as recurrent, negative polarity CH HSS effects persist. Additionally, G1 (Minor) conditions are likely, with a chance for isolated G2 (Moderate) levels, through 10 Mar as CH HSS effects continue. Unsettled to active levels are expected to linger through 11 Mar as CH HSS begin to fade.