Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
247 FXXX12 KWNP 190031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2024 Sep 19 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was at low levels. The largest flare of the period was a C4.1 at 18/0344 UTC from Region 3828 (S13E47, Cho/beta). Region 3825 (S15W07, Ehi/beta-gamma-delta) was mostly stable. Slight growth occurred in Region 3824 (S04W69, Eai/beta-gamma). The rest of the spot groups were either stable or in decay. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery. .Forecast... Solar activity is likely to reach moderate levels (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate), with a slight chance for X-class flares (R3-Strong), on 19-21 Sep. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux levels decreased to background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 19-21 Sep. There is a slight chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event (S1-Minor) on 19-21 Sep. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters were enhanced but in decline through the day. Solar wind speed decreased from approximately 520 km/s to near 425 km/s. Total field ranged from 4-9 nT while the Bz component was between +/-6 nT. At approximately 18/2045 UTC, Bz turned southward and sustained -8 nT through the end of the UTC day. Phi angle was mostly positive. .Forecast... Solar wind parameters are expected to trend towards nominal levels on 19-20 Sep. By 21 Sep, an enhancement is possible with the arrival of a positive polarity CH HSS. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was active early in the period due to residual CME activity and then again at the end of the period due to sustained southward Bz. The majority of the day was at quiet levels. .Forecast... Quiet to active levels are expected early on 19 Sep due to sustained southward Bz and the slightly enhanced solar wind environment. Mostly quiet conditions are expected to return on 20 Sep. Quiet to unsettled conditions are anticipated on 21 Sep due to possible CH HSS influence.