Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
968 FXXX12 KWNP 151231 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2025 Oct 15 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity continued at moderate levels due to M-class flare activity. Region 4246 (N22W50, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) produced several M-class flares during the period. The largest was a long-duration M4.8/2n at 15/0415 UTC. Modeling efforts showed the ejecta to be on a northward trajectory and not on an Earthward course. These suspicions aligned with STEREO imagery which showed a clear north path, and perhaps a complete miss. Region 4248 (N07W20, Eki/beta-gamma-delta) was responsible for an M2.0/1N flare at 14/1247 UTC, that was associated with a Tenflare (peaking at 160 sfu at 14/1245 UTC) observed by Sagamore Hill and San Vito USAF RSTN radio stations. Both regions 4246 and 4248 continued to grow in size and magnetic complexity, and also produced majority of the C-class flares during the period. The spotless Region 4247 (S12W85) produced a C3.6 flare peaking at 14/1455 UTC and other regions beyond both East and West limbs also showed isolated C-class flare activity. Regions 4250 (N07W14, Cro/beta) and 4252 (S13E31, Hsx/alpha) remained stable while Region 4251 (N19E05, Axx/alpha) showed decay. A new Region rotated into the visible solar disk and was assigned the number 4254 (N10E67, Hsx/alpha) during the period. .Forecast... Minor to moderate (R1-R2) radio blackouts are likely for the next 3 days, with a slight chance for an isolated R3 (Strong) event, due to the current and potential flare activity of Regions 4246 and 4248. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a maximum flux of 5,130 pfu observed at 14/1550 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels during this period. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to return to nominal to moderate levels on 15-16 Oct. There is a slight chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event above the S1 (Minor) levels through 17 Oct. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar Wind parameters were slowly returning to nominal levels as the effect of the negative CH HSS waned. Total interplanetary magnetic field remained at or below 6 nT level during the whole period, with a few isolated moments of negative Bz component. Phi angle was predominantly in the negative sector, as expected during the negative CH HSS influence. Solar wind speeds slowly decreased from about 700 km/s to 550 km/s level. .Forecast... Solar wind parameters are expected to continue gradual waning over the course of 15 Oct as the influence of negative CH HSS reduces. Disturbed solar wind conditions are expected by late on 15 Oct, and continuing through 17 Oct, due to CME arrivals from 11-13 Oct originating from AR 4246. Geospace .24 hr Summary... Geomagnetic field activity was quiet to unsettled over the past 24 hours. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field will likely remain unsettled to active until late on 15 Oct, when the CMEs from 11-13 Oct will likely begin to impact the near-Earth environment. Moderate storming conditions (G2) are likely on 16 Oct as CME impacts will perhaps be at their max according to model output. G1 (Minor) storming is likely to continue into 17 Oct.