Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
878 FXXX12 KWNP 300031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2024 Sep 30 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity reached moderate levels. Region 3842 (S15E45, Dai/beta-gamma-delta) produced the strongest event of the period, an M1.7/1f (R1-Minor) flare at 29/1424 UTC. Newly numbered Region 3843 (S07E15, Cao/beta) and Region 3841 (N14E32, Cri/beta) both exhibited growth this period. The remaining numbered active regions were either mostly stable or in gradual decay. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be low with M-class (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) flares likely and a slight chance for X-class (R3-Strong) flares on 30 Sep - 02 Oct. Energetic Particles .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was mostly at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels on 30 Sep - 02 Oct. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels on 30 Sep - 02 Oct. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters were enhanced this period. Total magnetic field strength increased ranged from ~6-14 nT. The Bz component reached as far south as -10 nT. Solar wind speeds steadily increased from ~300 km/s at 29/0500 UTC to a peak just above 500 km/s near the end of the UT day. Phi angle transitioned from mostly positive to variable after 29/1300 UTC. .Forecast... Solar wind parameters are likely to continue at elevated levels over 30 Sep due to a CH HSS. A return to mostly background levels is expected over on 01-02 Oct. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field is likely to reach active conditions on 30 Sep due to influence from a negative polarity CH HSS. Mostly quiet conditions are likely on 01-02 Oct.