687
FXXX12 KWNP 200031
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2024 Sep 20 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels. All numbered active regions exhibited
signs of minor evolution. However, only low-level C-class X-ray events
were observed in the past 24 hours. A slow-moving CME, first observed in
LASCO/C2 after 19/0600 UTC, appears to have originated from a broad area
in the higher latitudes of the NW quadrant. Analysis and modeling of the
event suggested no Earth-directed component was produced. No other
potentially Earth-directed signatures were identified in available
coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
There is a chance for solar activity to reach moderate levels (R1-R2,
Minor-Moderate), with a slight chance for X-class flares (R3-Strong), on
20-22 Sep.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux briefly reached high levels with a
maximum flux of 1,230 pfu at 19/1745 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton
flux was near background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is likely to reach moderate levels
on 20-22 Sep. There is a slight chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton
event (S1-Minor) on 20-22 Sep.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were slightly enhanced due to possible weak
transient influence. Solar wind speed were mostly between 400-450 km/s.
Total magnetic field strength ranged from 4-9 nT. The Bz component was
primarily oriented southward, with a maximum southward deflection of -9
nT. Phi angle was positive.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to trend towards nominal levels on
19-20 Sep. By 21 Sep, an enhancement is possible with the arrival of a
positive polarity CH HSS.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field reached G1 (Minor) storm levels during the
19/0000-0300 UTC synoptic period due to transient influence.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is likely to return to mostly quiet levels over 20
Sep. Quiet to unsettled conditions are anticipated on 21-22 Sep due to
possible CH HSS influence.