Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
646 FXXX12 KWNP 190031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2026 Aug 19 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was at low levels. Region 4507 (N04W55, Ehi/beta-gamma-delta) produced a C3.9/Sf flare at 18/0643 UTC, the strongest of the period. Consolidation was observed in the regions trailer spots. The other three spotted active regions were mostly stable. No other Earth-directed CME was observed during the period. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to continue at low levels over 19-21 Aug, with a chance for M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate). Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit remained at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit remained at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is likely to remain at low to moderate levels through 20 Aug. High levels are likely by 21 Aug due to CH HSS influences. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels through 20 Aug. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters suggested the onset of a negative polarity coronal hole HSS. Total magnetic field strength peaked at 14 nT. The Bz component rotated as far south as -11 nT. Solar wind speeds began the reporting period near 400 km/s. After 18/1239 UTC, wind speeds steadily increased to between ~550-600 km/s by the end of the UT day. Phi angle transitioned from variable to predominantly negative after 18/0922 UTC. .Forecast... Solar wind parameters are likely to continue reflecting influence from a negative polarity coronal hole through 21 Aug. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to G1 (Minor) storm levels. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field is likely to reach G1 levels over 19 Aug due to negative polarity CH HSS influence. Mostly active conditions are likely over 20-21 during the waning phase of the CH HSS.