Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
099 FXXX12 KWNP 111231 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2025 Aug 11 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity reached moderate levels. Region 4168 (N05W87, Cao/beta) produced an M2.2/Sf (R1-Minor) flare at 10/1507 UTC and an M1.7 flare at 10/2304 UTC. Associated with the M2.2/Sf flare was a CME off the W limb. Analysis of the coronagraph imagery suggested no Earth-directed component was likely. This region also produced an M1.7 flare at 10/2304 UTC. Region 4173 (S18, L=110) produced an M1.3 flare at 11/0352 UTC as it rotated around the WSW limb. Growth was observed in Regions 4172 (N08W11, Eai/beta-gamma), 4174 (S09W67, Cro/beta) and 4178 (N09W41, Dai/beta). New Region 4179 (S11E59, Cso/beta) was numbered this period. The remaining active regions were either mostly stable or in gradual decay. No other potentially Earth-directed CME events were observed in available coronagraph imagery. .Forecast... Solar activity is likely to continue at moderate levels (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate), with a slight chance for R3 (Strong) events, over 11-12 Aug. A chance for moderate levels (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) exists on 14 August as a few active regions rotate around the W limb. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at high levels with a peak flux of 3,695 pfu reached at 10/1545 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue to reach high levels over 11-13 Aug. There exists a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to reach S1 (Minor) levels over 11-13 Aug. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters reflected continued influence from a positive polarity CH HSS. Total magnetic field strength was between 5-7 nT and the Bz component reached as far south as -7 nT. Solar wind speeds gradually declined from ~600 km/s to ~550 km/s over the past 24 hours. Phi angle was predominately oriented in the positive solar sector. .Forecast... Enhancements in the solar wind are likely to continue over the next three days (10-12 Aug) under the influence of a positive polarity CH HSS, with an additional enhancement possible on 10 Aug due to possible weak interaction with the periphery of a CME that left the Sun on 07 Aug. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field is expected to reached active levels, with a chance for G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms, over 11-13 Aug due to persistent influence from a positive polarity CH HSS.