138
FXXX12 KWNP 120031
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2025 May 12 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached moderate levels during the final minutes of the
period. Region 4079 (N08W94, Cso/beta-gamma) gave a parting shot as it
produced an M-class flare that was on-going as of this writing. This
region was also responsible for C-class activity during the period, the
largest of which was a C3.2 flare observed at 11/1115 UTC. A majority of
the region has rotated around the W limb. Region 4085 (N02E11, Dso/beta)
exhibited minor development and produced a C3.8/Sf flare at 11/1501 UTC.
A C5.1 flare was also observed at 11/2344 UTC from a region just beyond
the NE limb. The remaining regions were either stable or in decay, and
were quiet throughout the period. No Earth-directed CMEs were detected
in available imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low over 12-14 May.

Energetic Particles

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels,
and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal
to moderate levels over 12-14 May, and the greater than 10 MeV proton
flux is expected to persist at background levels through 14 May.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
The solar wind environment was mildly enhanced as negative polarity CH
HSS influences began to wane. Total IMF strength reached 10 nT and the
Bz component varied between +7/-8 nT. Solar wind speeds remained fairly
steady between about 375-460 km/s. The phi angle was negative through
approximately 11/2200 UTC when it rotated into a positive orientation.

.Forecast...
Mildly enhanced solar wind conditions are expected to prevail over 12-14
as a transition from a negative to a positive polarity CH HSS occurs.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to G1 (Minor) levels this period
under weakening negative polarity CH HSS influences.

.Forecast...
Periods of unsettled to G1 (Minor) conditions are expected on 12 May as
negative polarity CH HSS influences linger yet diminish. Unsettled to
active levels are expected over 13-14 May as a positive polarity CH HSS
becomes geoeffective.