Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
248 FXXX12 KWNP 070031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2024 Nov 07 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity has been at high levels with ten M-Class flares and one X-Class flare. An impulsive X2.3/2b occurred at 06/1324 UTC originating from Region 3883 (S06E07, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) and had an associated Type II radio sweep of 256 km/s. A possible sympathetic subflare occurred slightly after at 06/1331 UTC from Region 3886 (S08E37, Eki/beta-gamma). This eruption cascaded away from the area along the magnetic arcade which appeared to have triggered a filament eruption at 06/1338 UTC. However, the magnetic field lines did not reconfigure as the filament was restored and became apparent in GONG/H-alpha imagery by roughly 06/1800 UTC. Region 3883 remained as a bright surge on the disk throughout this time up until 06/1646 UTC. There has been no CMEs associated with the event. Also around this time was an M5.3 at 06/1427 UTC that occurred beyond the east limb around S07. The second largest flare of the period was an impulsive M5.8 flare at 06/0850 UTC from new Region 3887 (N16W69, Dsi/beta). Region 3887 experienced growth in its leader as well as increased the number of interior spots over the period. Region 3883 increased slightly in length, added a few interior spots with some of them maintaining mature penumbra. Region 3886 increased its area and spot count. There are two new regions emerging around 08S and 16S but cannot be classified as of the time of this writing. There have been no Earth-directed CMEs in the coronagraph imagery associated with any of the flaring. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be moderate with continued M-Class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flaring and a chance for X-Class (R3-Strong) levels 07-09 Nov. Solar flare probabilities are being driven by Regions 3883 and 3886 due to their history and magnetic complexities. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux has been at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux has remained at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels on 07-09 Nov. There is a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to reach S1 (Minor) storming levels 07-09 Nov due to the flare potential of Regions 3883 and 3886. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Waning CH HSS influences can be seen in the solar wind parameters after 06/1200 UTC. Total field has decreased to 2-4 nT with the Bz component around 1-2 nT. Solar wind speed has also been on the decline from 450 km/s to 400 km/s. The phi angle alternated into the negative (towards the Sun) orientation between 06/1530 - 06/1830 UTC but has remained positive otherwise. .Forecast... A glancing blow from the CME associated with the M3.8 on 04/01058 UTC is expected 07 Nov. The forerunning shock is expected late 06 Nov with the magnetic cloud arriving 07 Nov. In conjunction with CME arrival, a weak negative polarity HSS from CH91 is expected to become geoeffective on 07-08 Nov. Earth will then become geoeffective with the large positive polarity CH88 in the southern hemisphere 09 Nov. Solar wind parameters are expected to become enhanced during these times. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled. .Forecast... A glancing blow from the aforementioned CME is expected on 07 Nov causing unsettled to active conditions with G1 (Minor) storming likely on 07 Nov. Unsettled to active conditions will remain 08-09 Nov from waning CME influences and the arrival of a CH HSS discussed in previous section. -Bri