Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
932 FXXX12 KWNP 150031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2024 Nov 15 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was low. Only low level C-class flares were observed, mostly from Region 3889 (S09W29, Fki/beta-gamma-delta). The largest flare was a C2.9 at 14/0913 UTC from Region 3889. Slight decay was observed in the intermediate spots of Region 3889 and in Regions 3886 (S07W76, Axx/alpha) and 3892 (S11W15, Bxo/beta). New flux emergence was observed in the NE quadrant and was numbered 3894 (N24E44, Bxo/beta). No Earth-directed CMEs were observed. .Forecast... M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) are likely, with a slight chance for X-class flares (R3/Strong) on 15-17 Nov. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels and the greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. .Forecast... There is a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to reach S1 (Minor) levels over 15-17 Nov. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels through 17 Nov. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind speed increased after 14/0345 UTC likely due to the onset of CH HSS influence. Solar wind speed increased to a maximum of 448 km/s. Total field increased from 6 nT to 14 nT while the Bz component was between +10/-12 nT. Phi angle was mostly positive. .Forecast... Enhanced solar wind conditions are expected to prevail over 15-17 Nov due to positive polarity CH HSS influence. A grazing from the 13 Nov CME associated with the M1.7 flare at 13/1708 UTC is possible late on 17 Nov. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field reached active levels for the final period of the UT day. .Forecast... Quiet to active levels are expected on 15 Nov with quiet to unsettled levels on 16-17 Nov as HSS conditions persist.