Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
391 FXXX12 KWNP 281231 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2025 Feb 28 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was at low levels with only C-class flare activity observed. New Regions 4009 (N11E31, Bxi/beta) and 4010 (N24E42, Bxo/beta) were numbered while the remaining regions were either stable or in decay. No Earth-directed CMEs were detected in available imagery. .Forecast... R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) events are likely, with a chance for R3 (Strong) or greater events, over 28 Feb-01 Mar. There is a chance for R1-R2 events on 02 Mar. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux returned to background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels through 02 Mar. There is a slight chance for S1 (Minor) storms on 28 Feb-01 Mar. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters were indicative of positive polarity CH HSS influences. Total magnetic field strength reached 13 nT and the Bz component reached as far south as -11 nT. Solar wind speeds increased from a low of 530 km/s early in the period to a peak of around 715 km/s late in the period. Phi angle was predominantly positive. .Forecast... Solar wind conditions are expected to remain enhanced over 28 Feb-02 Mar due to positive polarity CH HSS influences. Further enhancements are possible on 28 Feb-01 Mar due to the possibility of a glancing blow arrival of a CME that left the Sun on 25 Feb. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field reached G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) storm levels due to sustained positive polarity CH HSS influences. .Forecast... Periods of G1 (Minor) storms are expected on 28 Feb, with periods of active conditions expected on 01 Mar, due to continued positive polarity CH HSS influences and the possible glancing blow arrival of a CME that left the Sun on 25 Feb. Quiet to unsettled levels are likely on 02 Mar as CH HSS influence wanes.