Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
519 FXXX12 KWNP 110031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2025 Oct 11 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was low with five sunspot regions present on the visible solar disk and with one C-class flare during the period. Region 4248 (N08E47, Dso/beta-gamma) grew and developed a mixed polarity in the leader section, but magnetic shear was weak and the region was mainly inactive. Region 4241 (N12W71, Bxo/beta) changed little overall but was the source of a C2.3/Sf flare at 10/0629 UTC. The remaining regions were little changed. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery. .Forecast... There exists a slight chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) events over the next three days (11-13 Oct). Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux continued to reach high levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue to reach high levels over 11-13 Oct. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind conditions were indicative of a mildly enhanced IMF but slow solar wind regime. Total magnetic field strength hovered near 10 nT while the Bz component was mainly neutral to southward directed. Solar wind speed ranged primarily from 300-400 km/s and the phi angle was predominantly positive. .Forecast... Solar wind parameters are likely to experience an enhancement in total magnetic field strength and solar wind speed late on 11 Oct through 13 Oct due to the anticipated onset of influence from a recurrent, negative polarity coronal hole. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was quiet to active in varied response to the mildly enhanced IMF. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field is likely to reach active conditions on 11 Oct and G1 (Minor) storm levels over 12-13 Oct due to the anticipated onset of influence from a recurrent, negative polarity CH HSS.