Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
595 FXXX12 KWNP 061231 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2024 Oct 06 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity remained at moderate levels. Region 3842 (S14W42, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) continued to be the purveyor of flare activity producing a few M-class flares, the largest of which was a M2.4/Sf flare at 05/2320 UTC. AR 3842 continued to exhibit signs of evolution as the large delta signature in its leading spots grew over the course of the period. Region 3844 (S15W64, Ekc/beta-gamma) grew in overall length while exhibiting decay in its intermediate spots, and produced a few C-class flares including a C8.6 at 05/1505 UTC. Region 3848 (N13E21, Dkc/beta-delta) maintained a delta signature, although apparently weakening, and was relatively quiet. Region 3849 (S06E44, Eac/beta-gamma) rotated into a more favorable position for proper classification over the period and appears to possibly be two different, distinct regions, but remained relatively quiet as well. USAF observatories reported an eruptive prominence on the western limb beginning at 05/1203 UTC. The subsequent CME was first observed in LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery at approximately 05/1336 UTC. However, given the source location of this event, an Earth-directed component is not likely. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery as of the time of this writing. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be moderate (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) with a chance for isolated X-class (R3-Strong or greater) flares on 06-08 Oct. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels through 06 Oct with a chance to reach high levels on 07-08 Oct after CME passage. There is a chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux reaching the S1 (Minor) threshold on 06-08 Oct due to the enhanced flare potential from multiple regions. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters were at nominal levels until ~6/0700 UTC, when a weak shock arrived. Total field was at 5-8 nT, before increasing to 13-14 nT. Bz was generally in a north orientation. Solar wind speeds were averaging about 390 km/s before an increase to ~500-520 km/s. Phi was predominantly negative. .Forecast... Enhancements to the solar wind environment are expected to continue on 06 Oct and to continue through 07 Oct due to first a CME arrival from 03 Oct and then from possible additional CME arrivals that left the Sun on late 03 Oct and early on 04 Oct. Additional disturbances are possible on 07 Oct due to weak positive polarity CH HSS influences. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was quiet. .Forecast... G3 (Strong) geomagnetic storming is likely on 06 Oct due to the aforementioned CME effects. G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming is likely on 07 Oct with any glancing influence from the CME that left the Sun early on 04 Oct coupled with positive polarity CH HSS onset.