Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
126 FXXX12 KWNP 080031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2025 Feb 08 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2025 Feb 08 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center .24 hr Summary... Solar activity reached high levels. Region 3981 (N08W42, Ekc/beta-gamma) produced an M7.5 flare at 7/0921 UTC, the largest event of the period, and exhibited signs of decay in its intermediate area. AR 3981 also produced an M1.6, M1.1, and M3.1 flares this period. Region 3978 (N14W53, Cko/beta-gamma) grew in overall extent while producing C-class flares. Region 3988 (S20W09, Bxo/beta) was numbered this period, but was otherwise unremarkable. A faint, westerly CME associated with the aforementioned M-class flares from AR 3981 was observed in C2 imagery beginning at 07/0800 UTC. However, this event is not anticipated to have a significant Earth-directed component. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to reach moderate levels (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate), with a chance for isolated X-Class (R3-Strong) events, through 10 Feb due to the complex cluster of sunspot groups in the NW quadrant. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is likely to remain at moderate levels through 09 Feb. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux has a chance of reaching S1 (Minor) levels through 10 Feb due to the cluster of magnetically complex regions in the western hemisphere. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters returned to an ambient-like state. Total field gradually decreased to 4-5 nt, and the Bz component was primarily northward or neutral. Solar wind speeds decreased to below 400 km/s and phi was predominantly positive. .Forecast... The solar wind parameters may undergo a slight enhancement on 08 Feb due to the outside chance of glancing influences from a CME that left the Sun on 08 Feb. Enhancements from a recurrent negative polarity CH HSS are anticipated to begin on 09 Feb and continue through 10 Feb. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was quiet. .Forecast... Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 08 Feb due to the possibility for glancing effects from the 02 Feb CME. Unsettled to active levels are expected on 09 Feb due to negative polarity CH HSS effects. G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming is likely on 10 Feb as high speed stream effects continue.