550
FXXX12 KWNP 191231
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2025 Jan 19 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
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#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at moderate levels with M-class flares (R1-Minor)
observed. Region 3964 (N06W61, Eki/beta-gamma) produced a M2.4 flare at
19/0332 UTC, which was the largest of the period. AR 3964 was
responsible for the majority of the C-class flare activity as well as it
maintained a gamma magnetic configuration. Regions 3959 (N19W15,
Cko/beta) and 3961 (S09E05, Ekc/beta-gamma) tacked on C-class flares as
well with the latter presenting mixed polarities in its intermediate
penumbra. Region 3968 (S18W73, Bxo/beta) was numbered this period after
producing a C2.0 flare at 19/0203 UTC. New spots were noted near S08E75,
but went unnumbered as we await observatory reports. No Earth-directed
CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) events are likely, with a chance for R3 or
greater events, over 19-21 Jan.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels
and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal
to moderate levels through 21 Jan. There is a slight chance for the
greater than 10 MeV proton flux to reach S1 (Minor) levels over 19-21
Jan.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Negative polarity CH HSS influences and mildly enhanced solar wind
conditions prevailed this period. Total field strength was between 4-6
nT. The Bz component underwent several sustained, southward deflections
of -4 to -5 nT during the latter half of the period. Solar wind speeds
ranged ~460 km/s to just above 500 km/s. Phi was predominantly negative
with a few excursions into a positive solar sector.

.Forecast...
Negative polarity CH HSS influences are expected to continue over 19-21
Jan.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet and unsettled, with an isolated active
period, due to negative polarity CH HSS influences.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels
for the remainder of 19 Jan. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected to
prevail 20-21 Jan as negative polarity CH HSS effects continue.