431
FNUS73 KDDC 152332
FWSDDC

SPOT FORECAST for Holcomb Fire...Garden City Fire
National Weather Service DODGE CITY KS
532 PM CST Wed Jan 15 2025

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1130 CST on January 16.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

Please contact us via NWS Chat, 800mhz radio or phone if you have
questions or concerns with this forecast,

.DISCUSSION...

Dry conditions continue through Thursday night. Light west-northwest
winds through mid-Thursday morning are expected to turn more
southwesterly by mid-day as a weak lee side trough of low pressure
develops in eastern Colorado. Winds are forecast to increase somewhat
through the afternoon as the lee side trough continues to deepen, with
gusts upward of 15 to 20 mph possible. Winds are then expected to
subside in the evening with loss of daytime heating, all while
remaining southerly. A cold frontal passage is projected early
Friday morning, turning winds northerly. Gusty winds upward of 20
to 30 mph are forecast by mid-day Friday.

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 55.
Min humidity........31 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 5 to 6 mph shifting to the south 5
                    to 10 mph in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......1700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 6 to 12 mph shifting to the southwest 10
                    to 17 mph early in the afternoon, then shifting
                    to the south 18 to 20 mph late in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (CST)      11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
Sky (%).........4      3      2      7
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0      0      0      0
Temp............41     51     54     52
RH..............53     36     34     36
20 ft wind......SW 5   S 6    S 9    S 10
20 ft wind gust.7      10     14     16
Mix hgt (ft)....700    1300   1700   900
Transport wind..SW 8   SW 14  S 20   S 18
Haines index....5      5      5      5

.THURSDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (0-10 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 23.
Max humidity........77 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 9 to 11 mph with gusts to around 18
                    mph shifting to the west around 7 mph early in
                    the morning.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 14 to 21 mph shifting to the northwest
                    around 12 mph early in the morning.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (CST)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........5      6      4      4      5      5
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0      0      0      0      0      0
Temp............46     40     37     34     30     26
RH..............43     50     50     51     58     71
20 ft wind......S 10   S 11   S 11   S 10   SW 9   W 7
20 ft wind gust.16     18     18     18     14     13
Mix hgt (ft)....500    400    500    500    500    500
Transport wind..S 17   S 20   S 20   SW 16  W 13   W 12
Haines index....5      5      5      5      5      5

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 53.
Min humidity........36 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 6 to 8 mph shifting to the
                    north 10 to 17 mph with gusts to around 25 mph
                    in the late morning and afternoon.
Mixing height.......4200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 12 to 16 mph shifting to the north 18
                    to 26 mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CST)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........7      14     17     16     10     9
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0      0      0      0      0      0
Temp............24     27     34     48     53     50
RH..............81     75     62     39     36     41
20 ft wind......W 6    NW 7   NW 10  N 15   N 17   N 17
20 ft wind gust.10     11     16     22     25     23
Mix hgt (ft)....500    300    1000   2600   4100   3200
Transport wind..W 12   NW 14  N 18   N 23   N 26   N 24
Haines index....5      5      5      4      4      4

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.SATURDAY...
Much colder. Mostly cloudy with slight chance of snow. Lows
around 18. Highs in the upper 20s. North winds around 12 mph.
.SUNDAY...
Partly cloudy. Lows around 6. Highs in the mid 20s. Northwest
winds around 6 mph.
.MARTIN LUTHER KING JR DAY...
Colder. Mostly cloudy with chance of snow. Lows around 3. Highs
around 15. East winds around 7 mph.

$$
Forecaster...J JOHNSON
Requested by...Stuart McGowan
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2500741.0/DDC
.DELDT 01/15/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL stuart.mcgowan@gardencitytks.us