316
FGUS64 KTUA 241515
ESGDDC

LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
ARKANSAS-RED BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER, TULSA, OK
1013 AM CDT THU OCT 24 2024

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.

...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
             Valid  10/24/2024 - 01/22/2025

                                    : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
                                    : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                    :       AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
                     CATEGORICAL    :
                  FLOOD STAGES (FT) :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION          MINOR  MOD  MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------          ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----

:Arkansas River
COOK1             8.0   10.0   15.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
SYRK1            10.0   13.0   18.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
GCKK1            10.0   13.0   16.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
DDCK1            11.0   13.0   15.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5

:Walnut Creek
RCNK1            29.0   31.0   33.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5

:Buckner Creek
BETK1            16.0   21.0   25.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5

:Pawnee River
BTTK1            30.0   31.0   32.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
SANK1            24.0   27.0   30.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5

:Rattlesnake Creek
MACK1             9.0   10.0   11.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
ZENK1            17.0   17.5   18.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5

:South Fork Ninnescah River
PTTK1             9.0   11.0   13.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5

:Crooked Creek
ENWK1             6.5    8.0   10.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5

:Cimarron River
FRGO2             5.0    6.0    7.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5

:Medicine Lodge River
KIOK1            10.0   12.0   13.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5

LEGEND
CS  = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS  = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT  = FEET

IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID
TIME PERIOD.

...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B TUA 1024 Z DH12 /DC202410241513/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZXT
.B1 /HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH/HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF

:    Chance of Exceeding Stages at Specific Locations
:            Valid  10/24/2024 - 01/22/2025
:
:        95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
:        ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---
:Arkansas River
COOK1    3.0/   3.0/   3.0/   3.2/   3.3/   4.5/   4.7
SYRK1    4.3/   4.3/   4.3/   4.4/   4.5/   5.9/   6.0
GCKK1    5.4/   5.4/   5.4/   5.4/   5.5/   6.3/   6.3
DDCK1    7.2/   7.2/   7.2/   7.2/   7.2/   7.2/   7.2

:Walnut Creek
RCNK1    7.0/   7.1/   7.1/   7.1/   7.3/  17.7/  21.7

:Buckner Creek
BETK1    4.9/   4.9/   4.9/   4.9/   4.9/   7.1/   9.4

:Pawnee River
BTTK1    2.4/   2.4/   2.4/   2.4/   2.9/   8.6/  11.3
SANK1    5.7/   5.7/   5.7/   5.7/   5.8/   8.6/  10.4

:Rattlesnake Creek
MACK1    3.6/   3.6/   3.6/   3.7/   4.3/   4.8/   5.2
ZENK1   11.9/  12.0/  12.1/  12.1/  12.8/  13.6/  14.9

:South Fork Ninnescah River
PTTK1    2.7/   2.7/   2.7/   2.7/   3.9/   5.3/   6.4

:Crooked Creek
ENWK1    2.5/   2.6/   2.6/   2.7/   3.2/   4.4/   4.6

:Cimarron River
FRGO2    1.9/   1.9/   2.0/   2.1/   2.2/   3.8/   4.5

:Medicine Lodge River
KIOK1   -0.3/  -0.3/  -0.3/   0.0/   1.8/   3.5/   6.1

:Long-range probabilistic outlooks will be issued monthly
:throughout the year.

.END

$$