Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
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FGUS73 KDDC 271659
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PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1053 AM CST THU FEB 27 2025
...Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook Number 2...
This outlook applies to the Dodge City Hydrologic Service Area (HSA)
which includes the following rivers in southwest Kansas...
- The Arkansas River from the Kansas-Colorado state line to below
Larned, Kansas
- the Saline and Smoky Hill Rivers in Trego and Ellis counties
- the Walnut Creek in Ness and Rush counties
- the Pawnee Creek and Buckner Creek
- the Rattlesnake Creek and Crooked Creek
- the Cimarron River and Medicine Lodge River
This outlook is valid from February 27 through March 13, 2025.
Outlooks are routinely issued in February and March to give advanced
notice of possible flooding. They are based on soil moisture,
snowpack magnitude and streamflow at the time the outlook is issued.
The vast majority of flood events in the Dodge City Service area
result from short periods of higher intensity precipitation...or
longer periods of excessive precipitation.
Over the past year precipitation amounts in the HSA were generally at
or slightly above normal. Areas from WaKeeney to Dodge City as well
as areas along the Colorado and Oklahoma borders received 100% normal
precipitation in the last year. Areas around Garden City, Liberal,
Scott City, Hays, and Larned received 75% of normal precipitation.
No spot in southwest Kansas received abnormally dry amounts of
precipitation in the calendar year.
The last three months from November 26 through February 26 have been
fairly dry for much of southwest Kansas as areas along the Oklahoma
border have received 5-10% of normal precipitation, areas along and
north of highway 50 have received 25-75% of normal precipitation, and
only Morton county in the far southwest has totals of 100-150% of
normal precipitation.
Soil moisture is relatively high in southwest Kansas with moisture
values in the 70% percentile roughly along and south of highway 50.
The latest drought monitor index from (www.droughtmonitor.unl.edu)
issued February 27th shows moderate drought in Ellis and eastern Rush
counties and the rest of the counties surrounded by abnormally dry
conditions. Abnormally dry conditions also exist along the Kansas-
Colorado border and the Kansas-Oklahoma border.
The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook
released on February 20th, 2025 and valid through May 31st, 2025
calls for drought development likely in all of southwest Kansas.
The Climate Prediction Center Outlook issued on February 20th for the
3-month period of March through May 2025 calls for equal chances of
above, below, or near normal temperatures and leaning towards below
precipitation at 33-40% for most of southwest Kansas with higher
probabilities of below normal precipitation along and west of highway
83 (40-50%).
The 8-14 Day CPC Outlook valid for March 6-12th, 2025 calls for above
normal temperatures (40-50% probability) and near normal chances of
precipitation.
Eastern Pacific current oscillations are forecast to be La Nina range
for the Northern Hemisphere with a transition to ENSO neutral
conditions during the meteorological spring (March-May 2025). A weak
La Nina or neutral conditions would make it less likely for
conventional spring impacts such as widespread heavy rainfall events.
Localized thunderstorms could still produce locally heavy rains and
small areas of flash flooding.
Colorado Rocky Mountain winter snowpack in the Upper Arkansas River
Basin subregion is running slightly below median long-term average
conditions. The average snowpack from USDA SNOTEL sites in the upper
part of the basin is currently at around 79 percent of average.
Taking this out to the Arkansas river region which includes southwest
Kansas the number is at 68 percent of average.
At John Martin Reservoir in southeast Colorado, the current water
surface elevation is around 3813.91 feet, which equates to about
59,591 acre-feet of water. The reservoir is approximately 17.1
percent full. At Cedar Bluff Reservoir in west central Kansas, the
reservoir pool elevation stands at 2122.6 feet which equates to 66068
acre-feet of water. The reservoir is approximately 38.3 percent
full. At Horse Thief Reservoir in southwest Kansas, the current water
surface elevation is 2422.09 feet which equates to a current storage
capacity of 6268 acre-feet. Reservoir storage is at 101 percent
capacity. There is sufficient capacity for snowmelt runoff and spring
rains at John Martin and Cedar Bluff reservoirs in southeast Colorado
and southwest Kansas.
The U.S. Geological Survey 28-day average streamflow map indicates
that rivers and streams across central and south-central Kansas are
running at below normal levels. Exceptions include the Arkansas
river at Coolidge and Syracuse and the Smokey Hill River in Trego
county. These are at normal streamflow.
In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages
are listed for the valid time period.
CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.
HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical or normal conditions.
When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of
exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is
less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower
than normal.
...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding...
Valid Period: 03/01/2025 - 05/30/2025
: Current and Historical
: Chances of Exceeding
: Flood Categories
: as a Percentage (%)
Categorical :
Flood Stages (FT) : Minor Moderate Major
Location Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- ---
:Smoky Hill River
Arnold 12N 7.0 9.0 11.0 : 8 14 <5 <5 <5 <5
Schoenchen 2E 11.0 14.0 17.0 : 5 8 <5 6 <5 <5
:Big Creek
Ellis 15.0 17.0 19.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
Hays 2SSE 26.0 29.0 32.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Saline River
Wakeeney 5N 13.0 15.0 17.0 : <5 5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Arkansas River
Coolidge 8.0 10.0 12.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
Syracuse 1S 10.0 12.0 14.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
Garden City 10.0 13.0 16.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
Dodge City 11.0 13.0 15.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Walnut Creek
Nekoma 29.0 31.0 33.0 : 7 <5 5 <5 <5 <5
:Buckner Creek
Burdett 7WSW 16.0 21.0 25.0 : 6 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Pawnee Creek
Burdett 6W 30.0 32.0 34.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Pawnee River
Sanford 24.0 27.0 30.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Rattlesnake Creek
Macksville 8SE 9.0 10.0 11.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
Zenith 10NNW 17.0 18.0 19.0 : 6 <5 5 <5 <5 <5
:South Fork Ninnescah River
Pratt 9.0 11.0 13.0 : 8 7 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Crooked Creek
Englewood 6.5 8.0 10.0 : 5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Cimarron River
Forgan 8NNE 5.0 6.0 7.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Medicine Lodge River
Kiowa 2NE 10.0 12.0 13.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
Legend
CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
FT = Feet
In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid
time period.
...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...
Chance of Exceeding Stages
at Specific Locations
Valid Period: 03/01/2025 - 05/30/2025
Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Smoky Hill River
Arnold 12N 0.3 0.3 0.4 2.6 5.2 6.5 8.1
Schoenchen 2E 2.3 2.3 2.4 3.4 5.5 7.7 10.9
:Big Creek
Ellis 9.4 9.4 9.4 9.4 10.5 12.2 12.7
Hays 2SSE 4.7 4.7 4.7 5.6 8.6 13.3 15.9
:Saline River
Wakeeney 5N 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 6.4 9.7 12.1
:Arkansas River
Coolidge 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.5 5.7 6.6
Syracuse 1S 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.8 5.0 7.0 7.5
Garden City 5.9 5.9 6.0 6.1 6.4 6.8 6.9
Dodge City 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.9 8.5
:Walnut Creek
Nekoma 7.6 7.6 7.6 11.2 19.8 27.0 31.3
:Buckner Creek
Burdett 7WSW 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 9.8 13.1 17.3
:Pawnee Creek
Burdett 6W 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.4 11.3 15.9 17.2
:Pawnee River
Sanford 5.7 5.7 5.7 6.3 10.0 14.0 16.2
:Rattlesnake Creek
Macksville 8SE 3.8 3.8 3.9 4.3 5.1 6.7 8.5
Zenith 10NNW 12.8 12.8 12.8 14.3 15.3 16.0 17.5
:South Fork Ninnescah River
Pratt 2.6 2.6 2.7 4.9 6.4 8.3 10.3
:Crooked Creek
Englewood 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 4.2 5.9 6.6
:Cimarron River
Forgan 8NNE 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.7 4.0 4.7
In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the
valid time period.
...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities...
Chance of Falling Below Stages
at Specific Locations
Valid Period: 03/01/2025 - 05/30/2025
Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Smoky Hill River
Arnold 12N 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Schoenchen 2E 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8
:Big Creek
Ellis 9.4 9.4 9.4 9.4 9.4 9.4 9.4
Hays 2SSE 4.6 4.5 4.3 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0
:Saline River
Wakeeney 5N 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0
These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years
of climatological data...including current conditions of the
river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of
probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning
decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part
of the National Weather Service`s advanced hydrologic prediction
service.
Based upon the above information, there is near normal risk of
flooding over central and western Kansas this spring. Most flooding
in the area is directly related to specific heavy precipitation
events.
The next Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook will be issued on
March 13, 2025.
Visit our web site weather.gov/ddc for more weather and water
information.
$$
TATRO