253
FXUS63 KDDC 081740
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1140 AM CST Wed Jan 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another cold morning in store fore western Kansas. Wind chills
  through 9am will range from zero to -15 degrees. The coldest
  wind chills will be located near the I-70 corridor and
  near/north of the Garden City area.

- A 15% to 25% chance for light snow late Thursday/Thursday
  night. There is +75% chance for snow accumulations to be less
  than 1 inch.

- Over the weekend another upper level trough will cross the
  Central Plains. Currently it appears the chance for
  precipitation with this next upper wave will be <20%.

- Below normal temperatures will persist through the upcoming
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 303 AM CST Wed Jan 8 2025

Early this morning, the cold dome of high pressure was centered
over central Kansas with light west northwest winds observed
across north central and southwest Kansas. The status and fog
suggested by several short term models have not materialized,
resulting in temperatures falling back to near zero in areas with
snowpack. Despite the light winds, wind chills early this morning
range from 0F to -15F, with the coldest values reported along
the I-70 corridor and locations near and north of Garden City.
These bitter wind chills are expected to persist through 9 am.

After a cold start this morning, temperatures this afternoon are
expected to warm 10 to 15 degrees above yesterdays highs in the
snowpack areas. Elsewhere, given the downslope flow developing,
highs are forecast to reach the mid 30s to near 40F.

Short term models are in agreement this morning on the timing
of the next upper level trough, currently located over the
Pacific Northwest and British Columbia, crossing western Kansas
Thursday night. A chance for light snow will be possible late
Thursday into Thursday night as this trough moves across western
Kansas with snow accumulations from all model guidance with the
exception of the ECMWF indicating snow totals at or below 1
inch. ECMWF is the outlier this morning with forecast snow
totals up to 2" possible and it appears this is due to the
higher mid level moisture accompanying this upper trough and
slightly slower timings of the upper wave. Since ECMWF is being
consider the outliers will follow the majority of the
models/ensembles this morning. Since following the majority of
the models/ensembles this morning then the most favorable area
for accumulating snow will occur to be south and east of Dodge
City given the timing of the upper trough crossing southwest
Kansas between 18Z Thursday and 06Z Friday and where the better
improving difluent flow in the 700-500 mb level and moisture in
the -10 to -20C range will be located. In this area there is a
10 to 20% chance for snowfall in this area to be 1" or greater.
The chance for snow >0.1" across all of western Kansas is 40 to
60%.

Looking ahead to the weekend and early next week...the ensemble
clusters show good agreement on two additional upper level
troughs crossing western Kansas. One this weekend and one early
next week. However, precipitation chances from these systems
still appear low (below 20%). The Saturday night/Sunday upper
wave will require some monitoring, as 30-40% of ensemble
clusters are trending toward higher precipitation chances
compared to the grand ensemble guidance. Even if we do get some
precipitation from this weekend system it appears the 24hr
chance for snow greater than 0.1" is only 30-40%. Chance for
snow >1" during the same time frame <10%.

As for temperatures...temperatures will remain unseasonable cool
through early next week as a series of upper level troughs
rotate around the upper ride positioned near/just off the West
Coast, dropping southeast across the Central United States. The
coldest temperatures each day will be northeast of Dodge City,
where the snowpack is expected to linger longest.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1140 AM CST Wed Jan 8 2025

VFR flying conditions and light/variable winds are expected
across all terminals for much of this TAF cycle. Late in the
period, a cold front will dive south through southwest KS,
resulting in winds increasing out of the north into the 13-17 kt
range. MVFR/IFR cigs may accompany this wind shift, but current
thinking is any flight category reduction will occur just beyond
this TAF period.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Burgert
AVIATION...Springer