508
FXUS63 KDDC 241049
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
549 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread rainfall potential Sunday night and into Monday; a
  slight risk of Excessive Rain has been issued by WPC

- Heavy rain again possible with showers and storms Tuesday into
  early Wednesday. Heavy rain will be the main concern with
  these showers/storms

- Fall like temperatures expected across southwest Kansas during
  the first half of next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 339 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

Current RAP mesoanalysis depicts the upper-level pattern being
headlined by a strong low pressure system in Ontario and a robust
high pressure system across AZ/NM. Both systems have enough vertical
continuity to extend well into the lower-levels. With weekend
potential for precipitation dominating the headlines, quite a bit of
uncertainty still remains. CAMs have not been on point so far.
Multiple runs of the HRRR and NAMNST previously had scattered stuff
initiating along western Kansas already and moving eastward. Now, the
HRRR remains dry until what was suppose to be the second wave of
rain. Storms are currently active in the western NE/KS border. The
latest HRRR has storms impacting the northeastern zones and moving
southeastward. Other than areas near Hays and Pratt, SW Kansas is
now expected to be primarily dry until Sunday night.

Sunday night into Monday morning is expected to be the main event
regarding widespread precipitation. Both the NAMNST and RAP have
forecasted precipitable water values >1.50". The WPC has the
majority of SW Kansas in a slight risk (>15%) for much of SW Kansas
to exceed flash flood guidance. Between the discrepancies amongst
the CAMs, the seeming poor hold they currently have, and with
decreasing trends of ensemble precipitation totals a flood watch has
not been issued. That said, isolated areas of localized flooding can
not be ruled out, especially in areas that can get stagnant or
training showers overhead. Ensembles have the highest rainfall
values near the OK/KS border, especially the southeastern portion
of the CWA. The 25th-75th percentiles are roughly 0.5-3.5" through
Tuesday across that area.

The stretch of Sunday into Monday is expected to be cooler due to
the significant cloud cover and precipitation with highs in the 70s on
Monday. This is where highs are forecasted to reside for most of the
week with the wetter pattern. Ensembles have a couple more waves of
precipitation Wednesday and Thursday for more widespread chances of
precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 546 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

VFR conditions are expected to be the primary flight conditions for
all sites through the TAF period. Most of the period will see
showers near or at all sites later on Sunday. Current forecast is
some weak showers will descend from the north with some VCTS
currently near HYS. This first round is likely only to affect DDC
and HYS if at all. Later more widespread rain is expected to move
out of Colorado reaching every site by around 5-7Z. Some uncertainty
remains on exactly where, when, and how intense these showers get.
The TAFs try to capture the big picture of the pattern. VFR is
currently forecast for the entirety of the period, but occasional
drops in visibility or ceilings may create periods of lowered flight
conditions especially in the last few hours of the TAF period.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KBJ
AVIATION...KBJ