197
FXUS63 KDDC 081946
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
246 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another round of late evening/overnight thunderstorms possible
  tonight given higher moisture in place than previously
  forecast. Main severe weather risk damaging winds to 65 mph.

- Hot Thursday with widespread 100 degree temperatures
  increasingly likely. 90th percentile NBM shows 105F in a few
  spots across far southwest Kansas.

- Very high-based thunderstorms across far southwest and west
  central KS Thursday late afternoon/evening ahead of the next
  storm system. Damaging wind and dry lightning with initial
  storms the greatest concern.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 243 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

Early this afternoon, a surface outflow boundary from last night`s
convection across central and eastern Kansas continued to push south
into northwestern Oklahoma. Satellite imagery confirmed the
development of fairly deep surface-based cumulus clouds along this
boundary just south of Clark and Meade County. This is where
objective analysis fields had the best low level convergence, and is
subsequently the best area for late afternoon thunderstorm
development. Anything that forms near the Oklahoma line would move
almost due south given the strong northerly flow in the mid levels
as the summer subtropical high expands to the west-southwest across
the Desert Southwest region.

The outflow boundary that pushed west into western Kansas aided in
bringing in lower 70s dewpoints back west, resulting in higher
SBCAPE on the order of 4000-5000 J/kg on the 19Z objective analysis
across much of southwest Kansas. The southeast winds will advect
this higher CAPE air deeper into west central and northwest Kansas.
Thunderstorms will once again develop across the higher terrain of
Colorado, in particular over/near the Palmer Divide and Cheyenne
Ridge. These storms would move off the higher terrain into far
eastern Colorado and eventually far west central and northwest
Kansas, encountering this higher CAPE air. 12Z HREF convective
probability and mean fields, such as Composite Reflectivity and Echo
Top fields, show a fairly healthy signal maintaining at least a
small mesoscale convective system (MCS) through the late night hours
into southwest KS. We have added some Chance POPs (generally 25-30%)
for tonight thunderstorm potential, which may need to be increased
should these convective signals hold and satellite/radar trends
continue to look good this evening.

Going into Wednesday and Thursday, a fairly strong ridge-riding
shortwave trough will advance east across the Great Basin into the
Northern/Central Rockies, which will lead to a fairly impressive
southwesterly hot plume from 700mb down to the surface on Thursday.
Most models now show a +30 to +32C 850mb downslope thermal plume
expanding northeast across southwest Kansas, which will support
highs on Thursday well into the upper 90s to lower 100s. In fact, as
the surface air mass dries due to deep mixing and slight westerly
component, widespread 100s appear more and more likely. Latest NBM
90th percentile has some 103-105F out across far southwest and far
west central KS, which would not be a surprise to verify at some
locations. The other concern late Thursday afternoon/evening would
be the development of thunderstorms along the fairly deep trough
axis near the Colorado line where convergence will likely be fairly
strong in advance of the shortwave trough. Any storms that develop
out west would occur in a very low RH environment with not only
damaging wind gust concern but also dry lightning with incipient
storms that have very little precipitation.

Thursday Night`s storm system will push east and a fairly strong
cold front will follow. Latest global models continue to show fairly
anomalously cool air behind the front across the Northern High
Plains, and this air mass would infiltrate southwest Kansas by
Saturday. NBM, as a result, has continued to trend lower for
Saturday Highs, with even a high of 79F at Dodge City. This forecast
certainly seems justified given the high likelihood of stable
stratus cloud across much of western Kansas for a good portion of
the day.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

Light southeasterly winds will continue today, generally in the
8 to 12 knot range. No major changes from the initial conditions
are forecast, however we have introduced PROB30 for
thunderstorms for a 4-hour period late tonight at GCK and DDC as
the latest 12z HREF model and some of the latest runs of the
HRRR are bringing at least a small thunderstorm cluster south
east into southwest Kansas.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Umscheid
AVIATION...Umscheid