708
FXUS63 KDDC 161601
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1101 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Conditional severe weather threat this afternoon and evening

- Critical fire danger and red flag criteria likely (>80%) for much
of southwest Kansas Thursday afternoon

- Weekend storm system still on track to provide accumulating rain
to southern Kansas but confidence is still low about amounts

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 215 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025

07z upper air analysis and surface observations show a dampened
ridge moving through the central plains with a 700 mb shortwave
along the Kansas-Colorado border and a strengthening low level jet
leading to 50 kt winds in the 850 mb layer.  At the surface the
strong winds continue as a lee side trough and a 1005 mb surface low
in the Nebraska panhandle are leading to a tight pressure gradient
and southwest winds are at 10-20 mph.

Today the main focus will the setup for some potential isolated
thunderstorms in the late afternoon and evening hours and the severe
weather threat.  The short term CAMs are highlighting a few things
including a weak warm frontal boundary and a dryline as the result
of a surface low in southeast Colorado and increasing moisture
advection late in the day for south central Kansas.  Mixed layer
CAPE values by late afternoon are also higher than previous runs as
we should see values of 1000 j/KG by 00Z mainly for areas south and
east of Dodge City.  We will also have a strengthening low level jet
after 00Z which turns what is generally a straight hodograph in the
afternoon into a more sheared sickle shape and this would increase
the ability of updrafts to produce larger hail.  The wind threat
with the storms will be mostly on the fact that the thunderstorms
will be high based (LCLs around 700 mb) and a pretty wide dew point
depression leading to higher DCAPE values.  However we will also
have a pretty stout cap (CIN values forecast around -100 J/kg) that
the frontal boundaries and lower level winds will have to overcome
in order to get to the LFCs around 700 mb.  All that is to say
confidence in storms is pretty low (~20%) and will be isolated in
nature for areas along and east of highway 283 tonight.  However any
storm that does develop could potentially produce hail up to 2
inches and wind gusts to 60 mph.

Thursday is high confidence (>80%) of red flag criteria and critical
fire weather across southwest Kansas.  HREF probabilities of less
than 15% relative humidity and wind gusts over 25 mph are basically
100% across southwest Kansas between noon and 8 pm and between 2 and
7 pm in north central Kansas.   The surface low on Wednesday is
forecast to move into southeast Nebraska and another 700 mb
shortwave is forecast to strengthen a lee side trough and develop a
surface low in northeast Colorado .  This will lead to a west to
southwest wind all day and with the good downsloping effect we
should see 850 mb temperatures heat up to 25-28 (C).  This will in
turn heat up surface temperatures into the 90s across the region and
mid to upper 90s for areas south and east of Dodge City.  As the
surface low pushes east due to a large longwave trough moving into
the central Rockies a strong cold front will move across western
Kansas Friday morning and we should see temperatures a good 20-30
degrees colder on Friday.

The weekend setup is still showing some signs of accumulating rain
this weekend but confidence is starting lessen about the amounts due
to a slight pattern change. LREFs show a longwave trough in the 4
corners region briefly closing into a low on Saturday and then
turning into a negative tilt trough on Sunday in the central plains.
Given the trend that the system will be more of a trough we probably
won`t see a multi day heavy rain event in southwest Kansas but
rather a few rain showers on Saturday with some pre trough waves
moving through and then the majority of the rain on Sunday.  GEFS is
the quickest solution as the trough is more neutral and progressive
and probabilities of >0.10 inch of rain over 6 hour periods on
Sunday is only around 10-20%. ENS and GEPS solutions are still
slower with the more negative tilt however they have also sped
up the speed that the trough is moving and put the greatest
probabilities of > 0.10 inch of rain over 6 hour periods mainly
along and east of highway 283 with much lesser amounts as you
move west. Given this trend the highest probabilities of
receiving 0.25-0.50 inches of total QPF from the event are
mainly along and east of highway 183 (40-50%).

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1111 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025

Southwest winds will blow 15-25 kt through the evening. There is a
chance of very isolated TSRA this evening. Areal coverage is expected
to be very limited. Will not include TSRA/CB groups in the TAFs now,
as confidence is very low, particularly for any significant impacts
to any particular terminal. Another 50-65 kt LLJ may impact KDDC/KLBL
and could lead to LLWS for these terminals through the overnight
period. Southwest winds will be 20-30 kt tomorrow with gusts of 33
to 45 kt during the day. BLDU may be possible tomorrow during the
day, but confidence is also too low to include this early in the
TAFs for tomorrow.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 215 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025

Elevated fire weather threat this afternoon mainly for areas along
and west of highway 83 as lowest relative humidity values fall to
around 15% and southwest winds will be at 15-25 mph.  High
confidence of fed flag criteria and critical fire weather conditions
for much of southwest Kansas on Thursday afternoon as lowest
relative humidity values fall to around 5-10% and southwest winds
increase to 20-30 mph and wind gusts could be as high as 50 mph.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ to 9 PM CDT /8 PM
MDT/ Thursday for KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Tatro
AVIATION...Sugden
FIRE WEATHER...Tatro