816
FXUS63 KDDC 170526
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1226 AM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong south winds and unseasonably warm Thursday.

- Isolated thunderstorms near the northwest zones Thursday
  evening.

- Beautiful fall Friday with much less wind.

- Strong dry cold front with strong north winds Saturday.

- First frost of the season expected Sunday morning northwest
  counties, in the 30s, but no killing freezes expected.

- Southwest winds return for a much warmer Sunday, followed by
  another dry cold front Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

Closed midlevel cyclone near 560 dm was over Wyoming at midday.
Associated lee cyclone over eastern Colorado will continue to
deepen through the afternoon, maintaining strong south winds
through sunset, gusting to near 40 mph. 850 mb temperatures near
20C and excellent mixing will again deliver another unseasonably
warm afternoon in the lower to mid 80s.

12z NAM/ARW are in good agreement regarding expected convective
initiation this evening, with scattered thunderstorms along the
Colorado/Kansas border around 7 pm, mainly in WFO GLD`s CWA.
Renewed development will likely evolve out of the ongoing weak
convection along this axis. Feel most if not all activity will
remain northwest of DDC zones, so pops were kept very low
through tonight from Hamilton county through the northern zones.
With south winds again prevailing ahead of an approaching weak
cold front, temperatures sunrise Friday will again be far above
mid October normals, in the 50s.

A fantastic fall Friday is forecast, as the positively tilted
longwave trough arrives on the plains with lowering heights.
This will bring several degrees of cooling, reduced to the 70s,
except still mid 80s southeast zones where downslope will be
maintained into the afternoon. The lee trough and the Kansas
wind machine will be disrupted, resulting in much less wind.
Expect winds 10 mph or less by Friday afternoon. Any
thunderstorm development is expected to be near or southeast
of the far southeast zones, and likely after 7 pm, so kept all
grids dry through 7 pm Friday.

Long wave trough axis passes SW KS early Saturday, followed by
the associated strong, but dry, cold front passage during the
daylight hours. Given the well mixed, diurnal timing, north to
northwest winds gusting 40-45 mph are expected. NBM wind grids
Saturday are way too weak, and after coordinating with neighbors
increased them toward the 90%ile of the NBM. 12z MAV forecasts
sustained winds of 25-30 mph Saturday afternoon. Saturday will
be noticeably cooler, especially with the wind, but really just
closer to normal, in the lower 70s.

Surface high pressure ridge near 1025 mb is consistently
forecast by guidance to be in place sunrise Sunday. Light winds
and a clear sky will promote strong radiational cooling, and the
coldest night so far this fall. Minimum temperatures in the mid
to upper 30s will be common. The highest probability of frost
(>60%), or perhaps a brief light freeze remains in the
climatologically favored northwest zones and the Arkansas
valley. This cool air mass will be very fleeting, and of Pacific
origin, so we have high confidence a killing freeze will not
occur anywhere in SW KS Sunday morning.

Return flow and southwest winds return rapidly Sunday, and along
with full sunshine temperatures will rebound quickly. Model
guidance is trending faster with the next dry cold front, now
expected Monday afternoon. This cold front will not have time to
ingest moisture, so a high confidence dry forecast remains in
place through early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

Scattered convection is weakening as it moves across southwest
Kansas, consistent with CAMS guidance. Garden City has the best
chance for thunderstorms (30-50%) in the next couple of hours.
Liberal may see a 30% or less chance of convection between 07z
and 07z and 09z Friday. Storms are expected to dissipate before
reaching Hays and Dodge City TAF sites...however we will
monitor this closely and update TAFs if necessary. Should
convection persist it appears that what small chance for
isolated storms (10-15%) would be between 08z and 10z at Hays
and Dodge City. Gusty south winds ahead of the cold front early
tonight will shift to the north at 10-15 knots late tonight and
early Friday morning. BUFR soundings and surface observations
indicate ceilings of 5000-8000ft AGL with this activity,
followed by clearing skies.


&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Turner
AVIATION...Burgert