Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
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328 FXUS63 KDDC 300700 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 200 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 ...Updated Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Unseasonably hot Monday afternoon in the lower 90s. - Strong cold front Monday evening will bring northeast wind gusts near 40 mph, followed by refreshingly cooler air Tuesday. - Southwest Kansas will remain dry for the foreseeable future, through at least October 10th. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 200 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 An exceptionally dry and quiet weather regime continues with no impacts. Midnight infrared satellite imagery continued to depict a perfectly clear sky across SW KS and all adjoining areas. Models show a net warming of 2-4C at 850 mb Monday, and coupled with some SWly downslope prefrontal compression, and the increasingly dry topsoils/full sunshine, temperatures will easily achieve the unseasonably hot lower 90s this afternoon. 00z GEFS ensembles show near 100% probability of temperatures reaching 90, especially north and west of DDC, in the prefrontal compression warm sector ahead of the advancing cold front. The forecast high temperature at DDC Monday is 92, which is 14 above normal for the last day of September, and only 4 away from the record high of 96/1994. Also expecting a near record high at Garden City, a forecast of 93 with a record of 96/2009. A rather vigorous but dry cold front will be entering the northwest zones about 7 pm, be at DDC 8-9pm, and easily exit the southeast zones by midnight. Models continue to depict NEly 850 mb flow of 35-40 mph behind the cold front, and since the cold front will be arriving in a warm well mixed boundary layer, some of this momentum will reach the ground in gusts this evening. 00z MET guidance was among the strongest on winds this evening, averaging 22-24 kts sustained along the preferred US 83 corridor (GCK-LBL), and followed these numbers. Cool advection will reduce 850 mb temperatures about 10C on Tuesday, providing refreshingly cooler air, with afternoon temperatures reduced to the lower to mid 70s. 1032 mb cool surface high near North Platte 7 am Tuesday will quickly dive southeast to near Wichita by 7 pm Tuesday while weakening. Winds will trend light and variable as a result, delivering a fantastic fall day for the first day of October. The cooler air will be very short lived, with return flow and a SWly low level jet already establishing by sunrise Wednesday. This process will keep radiational cooling muted and keep morning lows near normal Wednesday. All models shows rapid, impressive warming Wednesday, with a net warming of +10-12C at 850 mb, enhanced by SWly downslope. 00z GEFS ensembles show a greater than 90% probability of temperatures surpassing 90 once again, south and west of DDC. No changes with another sunny warm dry afternoon Thursday, once again near 90 at 4 pm. A weak frontal boundary is progged to sag southward Friday, enough to remove the SWly downslope component, and adding a more easterly wind, which should reduce temperatures closer to normal Friday as NBM suggests. ECMWF/EPS guidance shows this boundary washing out, being pushed out by another strong surge of hot dry SWly downslope Saturday. Record highs for October 5th are in the mid 90s, and these seem reachable in some of the warmest guidance, and NBM may not be warm enough Saturday. Another dry cold front will once again trim temperatures for the second half of the weekend. Southwest Kansas has gone about a week now with no rainfall, and a very long dry spell will continue. We are confident that we will stay completely dry for the next 10 days, at least through October 10th, and probably much longer into mid October. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1100 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024 Excellent flying weather will continue through 00z Tue, with more VFR/SKC and light winds. A dry cold front will race through the airports 00-03z Tue, with strong northeast winds gusting 30-35 kts. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Turner AVIATION...Turner