016
FXUS63 KDDC 061050
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
550 AM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry, warming trend begins today as afternoon highs jump into
  the upper 50s.

- Cold front will pass through the area on Wednesday with little
  fanfare.

- Saturday looks particularly warm with afternoon highs in the
  upper 80s to low 90s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 AM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025

Water vapor satellite imagery and RAP upper air analysis at 07Z
reveals longwave troughing is in place over the central CONUS,
with ridging beginning to build over the west coast. Short range
ensembles are in agreement suggesting these features will
propagate eastward daytime Sunday, eroding any lingering cloud
cover over our area as DNVA facilitates subsidence. At the
surface, weak high pressure will remain fixed over southwest KS,
which will foster abnormally weak winds for a mid-spring day across
our area. 850-mb temperatures are progged to rise by around 2-5
degrees C amidst synoptic-scale subsidence and weakly
downsloping north-northwesterly winds, which will result in a
notable jump in afternoon temperatures, although highs will
still be held below normal in the upper 50s. Overnight,
continued clear skies and light winds will promote strong
radiational cooling, and Monday morning lows will dip into the
mid 20s to upper 30s.

Daytime Monday, short range guidance indicates upper level
ridging over the western CONUS will proceed eastward, but dampen
in the process as a shortwave trough advances eastward above
the Pacific Northwest. At the same time, another, much stronger
shortwave impulse will dig from the upper Midwest into the Great
Lakes area, sending a cold front southward through the central
plains. That said, this front will be nearly imperceptible and
do nothing to stop the warming trend as afternoon highs increase
into the mid to upper 60s.

Tuesday through the end of the period, medium range ensembles
agree upper level ridging over the western CONUS will rebuild
strength after being largely flattened, and this pattern will
reinforce the dry, warming trend across the central plains. The
only hiccup will be a cold frontal passage on Wednesday courtesy
of a weak shortwave disturbance digging from the northern
plains into the Ozarks, but this will only stall the uptrend in
temperatures as afternoon highs return to the upper 70s/low 80s
by Friday. Saturday appears to be the warmest day of the
forecast period as the upper level ridge emerges onto the High
Plains, and this is reflected in NBM high in the upper 80s to
low 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 550 AM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025

VFR flying conditions this TAF cycle for all terminals. Current
light and variable winds will continue through 12Z Monday.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Springer
AVIATION...Springer