606
FXUS63 KDDC 162330
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
630 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There are small chances for severe t-storms Saturday and
  Sunday evenings.

- There are small chances for rain showers Monday afternoon.

- Cool temperatures in the lower to mid 40s are forecast for
  Wednesday and Thursday mornings.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 312 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

A weak disturbance will approach the southern high plains late
Saturday as the mid level flow becomes west-southwesterly. A
surface trough will form over the southern high plains, along
with frontogenesis near the KS/OK state line. Having been
suppressed into north Texas, low level moisture will rapidly
advect northward into southern Kansas. However, the model
solutions of the RAP and HRRR showing the surface boundary
across the state line in Oklahoma are more realistic. But an
isolated severe t-storm or two with very large hail can`t be
ruled out around Liberal by late afternoon. A few elevated
t-storms are possible Saturday night across the southern half of
southwest Kansas, with best chances over south central Kansas.

On Sunday, an upper level low will amplify over the western
United States. Ahead of this low, a lead shortwave trough will
approach the central high plains. Overnight t-storms Saturday
night will likely reinforce the front across northern Oklahoma
or southern Kansas. Widespread cloud cover is likely north of
the front; and this will inhibit warming, resulting in hot air
behind the dry line butting up against cooler/moist air. With
the mid level warm plume overriding the cool air, a strong
capping inversion will likely be in place just east of the dry
air. This is not a favorable arrangement for long lived
t-storms. Any storm that attempts to form along the boundary
could move into stable air and weaken. The best chance of severe
storms is along the KS/OK state line from Coldwater to Medicine
Lodge and points east where the warm front will be situated. If
a storm can maintain itself for a long period of time, then
very large hail and tornadoes would be possible. However, the
chances for high end severe weather at any one point are very
low (less than 10%) and most places will not receive rain. The
best chance for locally heavy rain is across south central
Kansas with the any t-storm.

By the time the main upper level trough arrives Monday, the low
level moisture will have been shunted into eastern Kansas.
However, given the expected steep lapse rates and residual
moisture in the wake of the front, showers and non-severe
t-storms are possible with daytime heating. However, the various
ensemble means indicate very low mean precipitation amounts.
But given the spotty nature of the rain, a few locations could
get lucky and receive a quarter of an inch with any heavier
shower.

After Monday the large upper level trough will gradually
progress eastward through Thursday, with surface high pressure
buildings across the high plains Wednesday night. This will be a
dry period in the absence of deep moisture or strong upper level
support. With dry air in place and radiational cooling, expect
lows in the lower to mid 40s for Wednesday and Thursday
mornings. Given the expected light winds Thursday morning,
temperatures across west central Kansas including Scott City,
Garden City, Dighton and Syracuse could drop into the mid to
high 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 630 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

VFR flying conditions this TAF cycle for all terminals. Current
breezy northwest winds will weaken to light and variable in the
next hour or so, and continue through the overnight period. By
mid/late Saturday morning, winds will begin to increase out of
the east-southeast, becoming sustained in the 13-17 kt range
gusting to 23-27 kts by early afternoon.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Finch
AVIATION...Springer