784
FXUS63 KDDC 301605
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1105 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected tonight
  through Sunday morning, which will mainly be sub-severe.

- Summertime heat returns Monday with afternoon highs in the
  upper 90s/near 100.

- Precipitation chances exist each day through the period, with
  the best chance on Wednesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 825 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Updated pops and QPF based on radar trends.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Infrared satellite and KDDC radar observations reveal scattered
thunderstorms are increasing in coverage within an area of WAA
across the central plains. Recent runs of the HREF suggest this
activity will increase in coverage through the overnight period
and into Sunday morning, bringing widespread rain to southwest
KS as HREF probability of QPF > 0.5" is in the 60-80% range for
much of the area. Some of these thunderstorms reaching severe
criteria cannot be ruled out given around 30 kts of 0-6km
shear, however, meager instability should make any severe
convection very few and far between. By early afternoon Sunday,
CAMs indicate convective activity will be winding down/moving
northeast of our area, but widespread cloud cover will persist,
limiting afternoon temperatures to well below normal with highs
ranging from the mid 80s southwest to the mid 70s northeast.
Another round of thunderstorms is possible late Sunday afternoon
into the overnight hours as convection moves off the higher
terrain in CO into western KS, but coverage will be much lower
with only slight chance (15-24%) to low-end chance (25-54%) pops
across the northern zones.

Daytime Monday, the summertime heat returns with a vengeance as
clear skies, a strong upper level ridge over the southern
plains, and downsloping surface southwesterly flow across the
central plains combine to send afternoon temperatures above
normal with highs in the upper 90s/near 100. A few scattered
showers/thunderstorms are possible once again Monday afternoon
and evening as a cold front associated with a surface low
located over south-central Canada drifts southward into our
area, however coverage will be similarly low to Sunday night
with only slight chance (15-24%) to low-end chance (25-54%)
pops.

Tuesday through the end of the work week will feature daily
opportunities for precipitation, likely in the form of sub-
severe thunderstorms, as the mid-level jet remains over roughly
the northern half of the CONUS, which is just close enough to
southwest KS to support convective activity. Currently, the best
chance for precipitation appears to be Wednesday as the LREF
probability of QPF > 0.1" is in the 40-80% range for our entire
area. This will also be accompanied by below normal temperatures
as NBM highs are only in the mid/upper 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1111 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Shra and isolated tsra will continue across the terminals but should
diminish with time this afternoon as the main UL wave moves through.
Another round of shra/tsra may be possible late this evening across
KHYS. Otherwise, LIFR to IFR cigs will slowly improve this afternoon
to MVFR or VFR as rain shield/low cigs erodes with time. VFR is expected
towards end of TAF pd for all terminals. Winds will be E to SE 10-20
kt through the overnight pd.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 3 PM CDT this afternoon for KSZ066-074>081-
084>090.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Sugden
DISCUSSION...Springer
AVIATION...Sugden