219
FXUS63 KDDC 052240
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
540 PM CDT Tue Aug 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A hot and dry rest of the work week is forecast

- The weekend is expected to provide some relief with
  temperatures and precipitation potential

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 258 PM CDT Tue Aug 5 2025

The upper-level synoptic pattern remains static over the last few
forecast periods. Ridging continues to build along the USA/Mexico
border. For SW Kansas, the flow aloft is northwesterly. Ensembles
have the flow becoming more zonal over the next few days. Surface
analysis has a subtle surface trough in eastern Colorado. This has
culminated in a gusty southerly wind (20-30 mph) and mostly clear
skies. Temperatures have reached 90 across most of SW Kansas with
highs forecast in the mid-90s.

The warming trend for the week is in full effect with the next few
days still forecast to be quite hot. Highs tomorrow are expected to
be near or above 100 degrees for he entire forecast area. With
ensembles having WAA near the surface and at 850 mb, highs will have
the support needed to climb rapidly. With the air immediately aloft
hot, the latest forecast is that little convection is expected
Wednesday. CAMs concur with the inferred CAP that storms will
struggle to initiate. The big question is whether a Heat Advisory
will be needed. Wednesday is quite borderline regarding criteria and
reaching 105 degree heat indices. As Thursday and Friday heat even
further, it is expected that at least a portion of counties will
need a heat headline if the trends hold. Regardless of if/where a
Heat Advisory is issued for, it will be hot and heat precautions
should be taken as it will be hot for a few days. Friday`s highs are
forecast to push some of the high temperatures records in the
western counties.

The weekend finally sees a pattern shift. Ensembles have
temperatures cooling significantly (10-15 degrees) and multiple
potential rounds of precipitation is depicted. Significant
uncertainty remains in the details regarding the precipitation,
but confidence in the overall pattern change is near-certain.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 536 PM CDT Tue Aug 5 2025

Expecting VFR conditions to continue throughout the TAF period. Breezy
conditions, on the order of 15-20 knots with gusts 20-30 knots
at times, are expected across all terminals through Wednesday
evening. In addition, marginal LLWS is expected from 05z-12z
Wednesday morning.


&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KBJ
AVIATION...Bennett