882
FXUS63 KDDC 092313
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
613 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Tranquil conditions expected through early Sunday.

- Unseasonably warm temperatures likely through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

WV imagery indicates ridging aloft slowly building across the Desert
Southwest northward into the Western High Plains. Near the surface,
a weak area of low pressure is anchored in southeast Colorado.

An ongoing tranquil pattern is likely to persist early into the
weekend as the SREF indicates the aforementioned upper level ridge
further amplifying across the Western High Plains tonight, then
beginning to shift east into the Central Plains Friday. Near the
surface, low pressure in southeast Colorado is projected to deepen
somewhat while beginning to edge east into extreme southwest Kansas
by early evening, helping nudge moisture eastward with a drier
southwesterly flow into southwest Kansas, limiting instability. As
a result, precip chances will remain out of the forecast tonight.
Dry conditions continue Friday as an upper level shortwave trough
drops southeast through the Upper Midwest, sending an attendant
cold front southward into western/central Kansas before stalling
out somewhere generally along or just north of the vicinity of the
Oklahoma line by Friday afternoon. The drier pattern is expected
to last through Saturday as the upper level ridge moves east
through the Central Plains.

Temperatures will once again remain above normal tonight as
prevailing southerlies further reinforce a warmer air mass across
the area. Considering the latest HREF shows a 50-70% probability of
temperatures falling below 60F in west central Kansas and portions
of southwest Kansas to the same probability of temperatures slipping
below 65F in south central Kansas, look for lows in the 50s(F) out
west to the lower 60s(F) in south central Kansas. Despite a weak
cold front pushing south through west central Kansas and central
Kansas before stalling out in southwest Kansas by mid/late Friday
afternoon, expect widespread afternoon highs up into the 80s(F)
with the HREF painting a 50-70% probability of temperatures topping
80F in vicinity of the I-70 corridor to better than 90% probability
of exceeding 80F farther south. Near 90F is not out of the question
in south central Kansas. Similar temperatures are likely Saturday
as the stalled boundary lifts back north, and again Sunday ahead
of another cold front approaching from the northwest.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 609 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

A surface cold front will move into southwest Kansas late
tonight/early Saturday morning. As this boundary passes the
winds will shift from south southwest at 10 knots or less to the
north, with the potential for patchy fog. The latest CAMS
guidance suggests this front will pass through the Garden City
and Hays areas between 09Z and 12Z Saturday, then progress
towards Liberal and Dodge City by 15Z where it is expected to
become nearly stationary through early Saturday night. The fog
development near and north of this boundary will reduce
visibility to 3-5miles at times in the Garden City and Hays
areas between 12Z and 15Z. There is also a 20 to 40% chance of
visibilities falling to 2 miles or less, with the highest
confidence for this occurring in the Hays area. Outside of this
early morning fog potential, VFR conditions are anticipated.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JJohnson
AVIATION...Burgert