695
FXUS63 KDDC 052325
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
625 PM CDT Sat Oct 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unseasonably hot temperatures Saturday afternoon.

- A dry cold front ushers in much more comfortable air Sunday.

- Warm, above normal afternoon temperatures will continue all of
  next week, mainly in the 80s.

- Southwest Kansas will remain dry for the foreseeable future,
  into mid October.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sat Oct 5 2024

Midday satellite imagery still revealed a perfectly clear sky
over SW KS, in a continued very dry, subsident regime. Surface
observations depicted the expected intensely warm SWly downslope
surge across Kansas, with SW winds gusting as high as 40 mph,
and temperatures surging toward near record levels. With the aid
of prefrontal compression, downslope will send temperatures
soaring to the mid 90s by 4 pm. The record high for DDC for
October 5th is 95/1947, and that record will be challenged this
afternoon.

The next in the parade of dry cold fronts will be near I-70
about 7 pm, along US 50 by 10 pm, and clear the Oklahoma border
by midnight. Post frontal northeast winds and the onset of cold
advection will allow temperatures to fall to seasonally cool
levels sunrise Sunday, in the upper 40s and lower 50s.

Models show a net cooling of about -10C at 850 mb Sunday, with
much more comfortable air. Cool surface ridging will be in
control through Sunday, with northeast winds prevailing.
Northeast winds will be quite elevated and gusty through the mid
morning after the onset of mixing, but will diminish to light
and variable in the afternoon. Much milder, in the upper 70s and
lower 80s. South winds and warm advection return Monday, but the
warming trend looks modest, with only lower 80s.

All of next week, Monday through Friday, all models show an
amazingly stagnant, and stubbornly quiet regime, with no
synoptic changes and zero chance of rain. Mid level ridging will
remain planted over the SW US through the week, varying little
in strength or position. The string of sunny warm afternoons and
clear nights will continue, with few if any clouds. The good
news is excessive (record breaking) heat will not be allowed to
return next week, with afternoon temperatures in the 80s typical
(still way above October normals). 12z GEFS ensembles show the
highest probability of temperatures surpassing 90 will be near
the Oklahoma border each day, through next week.

In a word, quiet. Models and ensemble systems show no
significant cold fronts, no frosts or freezes, no wind events,
no precipitation of any kind, into mid October.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 625 PM CDT Sat Oct 5 2024

VFR flying conditions this TAF cycle for all terminals. Radar
observations show a cold front has just entered our area, and
will continue southward through the evening. Gusty southerly
winds ahead of it will flip to northeasterly upon the fropa.
There may be a brief period immediately after fropa when winds
will be strong, but this will likely be limited to HYS and maybe
DDC/GCK as boundary layer decoupling will suppress wind speeds.
Sunday morning, northeast winds will increase into the 15-20 kt
range gusting to 30 kts before weakening back down to aoa 12 kts
by 19-21Z.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Turner
AVIATION...Springer