


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
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882 FXUS63 KDDC 092313 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 613 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Tranquil conditions expected through early Sunday. - Unseasonably warm temperatures likely through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 200 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025 WV imagery indicates ridging aloft slowly building across the Desert Southwest northward into the Western High Plains. Near the surface, a weak area of low pressure is anchored in southeast Colorado. An ongoing tranquil pattern is likely to persist early into the weekend as the SREF indicates the aforementioned upper level ridge further amplifying across the Western High Plains tonight, then beginning to shift east into the Central Plains Friday. Near the surface, low pressure in southeast Colorado is projected to deepen somewhat while beginning to edge east into extreme southwest Kansas by early evening, helping nudge moisture eastward with a drier southwesterly flow into southwest Kansas, limiting instability. As a result, precip chances will remain out of the forecast tonight. Dry conditions continue Friday as an upper level shortwave trough drops southeast through the Upper Midwest, sending an attendant cold front southward into western/central Kansas before stalling out somewhere generally along or just north of the vicinity of the Oklahoma line by Friday afternoon. The drier pattern is expected to last through Saturday as the upper level ridge moves east through the Central Plains. Temperatures will once again remain above normal tonight as prevailing southerlies further reinforce a warmer air mass across the area. Considering the latest HREF shows a 50-70% probability of temperatures falling below 60F in west central Kansas and portions of southwest Kansas to the same probability of temperatures slipping below 65F in south central Kansas, look for lows in the 50s(F) out west to the lower 60s(F) in south central Kansas. Despite a weak cold front pushing south through west central Kansas and central Kansas before stalling out in southwest Kansas by mid/late Friday afternoon, expect widespread afternoon highs up into the 80s(F) with the HREF painting a 50-70% probability of temperatures topping 80F in vicinity of the I-70 corridor to better than 90% probability of exceeding 80F farther south. Near 90F is not out of the question in south central Kansas. Similar temperatures are likely Saturday as the stalled boundary lifts back north, and again Sunday ahead of another cold front approaching from the northwest. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 609 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025 A surface cold front will move into southwest Kansas late tonight/early Saturday morning. As this boundary passes the winds will shift from south southwest at 10 knots or less to the north, with the potential for patchy fog. The latest CAMS guidance suggests this front will pass through the Garden City and Hays areas between 09Z and 12Z Saturday, then progress towards Liberal and Dodge City by 15Z where it is expected to become nearly stationary through early Saturday night. The fog development near and north of this boundary will reduce visibility to 3-5miles at times in the Garden City and Hays areas between 12Z and 15Z. There is also a 20 to 40% chance of visibilities falling to 2 miles or less, with the highest confidence for this occurring in the Hays area. Outside of this early morning fog potential, VFR conditions are anticipated. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JJohnson AVIATION...Burgert