274
FXUS63 KDDC 271910
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
210 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated storms possible this evening, severe threat is low but
possible mainly around Hays to St. John

- Warm and breezy on Friday with enhanced fire danger possible

- Weekend storm system is still looking mainly dry for much of
  southwest Kansas and will also bring a cooldown by Sunday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 209 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025

19Z upper air analysis shows fairly zonal flow across the central
plains with a weak low in central Texas.  At the surface a 1007 mb
surface low is located in northwest Kansas with a trough extending
from north central Kansas back to southeast Colorado.  A cumulus
field is trying to develop along the boundary around Ulysses.

This evening the aforementioned boundary will be monitored for the
potential of isolated thunderstorms.  The combination of the warm
temperatures nearing 90 degrees, the convergence of the stronger
south winds and the weaker southwest winds around the boundary, and
some modest 850-700 mb frontogenesis will lead to an environment that
could support some lifting of parcels and isolated storms.  Risk of
severe storms is low but not 0 as the best combination of CAPE
(~1000 J/kg), shear (30 kt 0-6km), and surface moisture (dewpoints
in the mid 50s) will be around Great Bend through northeast Kansas.
Further south and west the surface moisture will be drier as
evidence of dewpoints in the 30s and 40s and LCLs at around 2500-
3000m so any thunderstorm development will be high based and low
precipitation. The lightning strikes in this area of fire danger
could lead to some possible fires being started by the storms as the
rainfall won`t be much to put out the fire.

Friday a shortwave trough moves from the four corners region into
the Colorado Rockies during the day.  This should allow good
convergence on the lee side of the Rockies that an eastern Colorado
low forms by late afternoon.  With little weakening of the 850 mb
winds from tonight into tomorrow we should see another day of strong
southwest winds at 20-30 mph and gusts to 40 mph.  Humidity values
will be lowest mainly along and west of highway 83 however the winds
should be slightly less as well.  Despite this the winds themselves
will lend to another enhanced fire risk through the day.
Temperatures should warm back into the lower to mid 80s.

For the weekend the main upper level trough moves into the central
Rockies and the developed Colorado low moves into central Kansas by
late afternoon Saturday.  With this setup we should have the dry
line quickly move through southwest Kansas by early afternoon and
then the cold front by late afternoon.  This will basically reduce
any chance of storms to basically our far northern and eastern zones
and even those chances are 20%.  Sharply colder air will start to
move into far western Kansas by late afternoon Saturday and with
lift in the vicinity of the 700 mb low in central Nebraska we could
see some post frontal rain showers along the I-70 corridor.  Long
range ensembles have the main trough moving eastward towards the
Great Lakes by Sunday evening and strong cold air advection during
the day Sunday that we will only have highs in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1157 AM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025

VFR flight category for all terminals during the time period.
Winds overall during this time frame will be strong with the
strongest winds in the afternoon today and the mid to late
morning hours on Friday with sustained winds at 20-25 kts and
gusts over 30 kts at times. During the night winds will stay
strong at sustained 15-20 kts and gusts over 30 kts. A weak
frontal boundary may lead to some isolated storms between 22-02Z
around GCK, DDC, and HYS however with probabilities at 10-20%
the chances of a storm affecting the airports is low at this
point.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 209 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025

Enhanced fire danger risk on Friday mainly from winds.  The lowest
relative humidity values will be along and west of highway 83 where
15% will be the lowest they will drop.  However these areas should
have slightly lighter winds.  East of highway 83 the winds will be
strong at 20-30 mph and gusting to near 40 mph...but we should have
higher moisture in the air as lowest humidity values fall to around
30%.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Tatro
AVIATION...Tatro
FIRE WEATHER...Tatro