674
FXUS63 KDDC 101114
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
514 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Modest recovery in temperature today, mainly out west, where
  afternoon highs around 40 possible

- Next storm system Saturday/Saturday Night will have little or
  no impact on southwestern Kansas weather.

- Late weekend into next week, cold air mass will be well
  northeast of our forecast area with downslope warming likely,
  along with dry weather.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 348 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025

The last of the accumulating snow ended overnight as the main body
of this latest storm system shifts east into the Lower Mississippi
Valley where high impact winter conditions were occurring.
Conditions across western Kansas will improve dramatically today as
a positive-tilted upper level ridge moves across the Rockies and
adjacent High Plains. Winds will become westerly at the surface, as
a result, leading to a quick modification of the air mass,
particularly over far southwest and far west central Kansas where
snowpack is less. Highs may touch 40 degrees near the Colorado line,
and there is decent support for that in the latest model data (40-
45% probability of exceedance of 40 degree mid/late afternoon
temperatures), generally along and west of Hugoton to Holcomb to
Scott City line.

The upper level ridge will be quickly replaced by another upper
level trough moving in from the northwest, however this wave will be
characteristically broad and quick-moving across the Central CONUS
Saturday and Saturday Night, thus large scale forcing for ascent
will be weak at best, so precipitation chances will also be minimal
at best. Latest NBM POPs do bring them above mentionable 15% along
the I-70 corridor Saturday evening along the weak front associated
with this system. The low level thermodynamic profile would support
a rain/snow mix with 850mb temperatures near or slightly below 0C.
Regardless, though, QPF is only a few hundredths of an inch over
portions of Ellis and Rush County mainly.

The cold front tied to this system will not result in a temperature
drop given the downslope warming offset, so following day (Sunday)
highs will likely be in the upper 30s to lower 40s across much of
our forecast area. As we head into next week, global models and
their ensemble system means show the main polar jet stream trough
axis well to the northeast of our southwest Kansas region with a
large ridge developing across the Pacific Northwest region, putting
us in a downslope warming pattern and near-zero chance of
precipitation through at least the middle part of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 512 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025

Good aviation weather is forecast today and tonight following
yesterday`s storm system. Prevailing wind will remain out of the
northwest, averaging 10 to 14 knots today and will fall off to 6
knots or less this evening and overnight tonight. Much drier air
moving in will result in widespread VFR flight category.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Umscheid
AVIATION...Umscheid