339
FXUS63 KDDC 011020
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
520 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to marginally severe thunderstorms are possible across
  our northwest zones Monday afternoon.

- Another chance for severe thunderstorms exists Tuesday
  afternoon across roughly the southeast half of our area.

- Precipitation chances continue into mid-week, but drop off
  substantially following a cold front on Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

Recent radar observations from KGLD and KDDC reveal scattered
showers/thunderstorms have developed over portions of western KS
during the past hour. Latest CAMs indicate this activity will
percolate near the I-70 corridor through the overnight period,
but little to no impacts are expected. Otherwise, water vapor
satellite imagery and RAP upper air analysis depict a ridge is
in place over the High Plains between a pair of troughs over the
northwest and northeast CONUS, and these features are progged
to slide east daytime Monday. At the surface, a low pressure
system centered near east-central WY will inch eastward,
resulting in south-southwesterly downslope flow over the central
plains. This along with clear skies and subsidence under the
upper ridge will support afternoon highs returning to the
mid/upper 90s. As the northwest CONUS upper level trough
approaches Monday afternoon and evening, thunderstorm
development is likely over the higher terrain in CO. This
activity will spread east with time, and cross into western KS
around 21-22Z. While a few damaging wind gusts and/or marginally
severe hail cannot be ruled out across the northwest third of
our area, weak instability and only modest deep-layer shear
should preclude any noteworthy severe threat. Monday night will
be quiet with lows dropping into the upper 60s northwest to
upper 70s southeast.

During the day Tuesday, short range ensembles agree the upper
level ridge will be forced southeastward as the upper level
trough broadens out over the central and northern plains. In
response, a weak surface cold front will drift southward through
our area, but provide only limited relief from the heat as
afternoon temperatures still peak in the low 90s northwest to
low 100s southeast. On the other hand, this boundary will be the
focus for afternoon thunderstorm development, favoring the
southeast half of our area. Contrary to Monday, latest guidance
suggests SBCAPE will be in the 750-1500 J/Kg range along with
around 30 kts of deep-layer shear, which are both sufficient for
severe convection posing primarily a damaging wind gust and
large hail threat.

Wednesday through the end of the week, medium range ensembles
agree the synoptic pattern will stay relatively unchanged as
broad longwave troughing envelops roughly the northern 2/3rds of
the CONUS. Precipitation chances start out robust, as LREF
probability of QPF > 0.1" is in the 40-70% range for much of the
area on Wednesday, followed by the 30-50% range Thursday night
with the passage of a strong cold front (by mid-summer
standards). However, behind this front, precipitation chances
will be largely shut down as LREF probability of QPF > 0.1"
does not exceed 30% through the weekend. Thankfully, there is
some good news, as temperatures will be below normal (low 90s)
Friday and Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 520 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

Surface observations across southwest KS reveal MVFR/IFR stratus
remains at DDC, GCK, and HYS, with LBL in VFR. Latest CONSShort
suggests cigs will rapidly improve from southwest to northeast
as the sun rises, allowing DDC and GCK to return to VFR by 13Z,
and HYS by 15Z. Otherwise, southerly/south-southwesterly winds
will increase shortly after sunrise into the 15-20 kt range with
gusts of 30 kts possible. After sunset Monday afternoon, these
winds will only weaken a few knots as the pressure gradient
across our area is maintained.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Springer
AVIATION...Springer