740
FXUS63 KDDC 092200
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
500 PM CDT Sun Mar 9 2025

...Updated Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unseasonably warm Monday with afternoon temperatures near 80.

- Fire weather concerns Monday and Thursday that should be monitored
  for potential future fire weather headlines.

- Ensembles/models show another wind event Friday with the next
  opportunity for precipitation.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 PM CDT Sun Mar 9 2025

Both current surface and RAP mesoanalysis has ridging moving over
the CWA with a surface high pressure regime overhead. Current
conditions are clear skies and light (5-15 mph) winds as a result.
Winds are currently out of the northwest, but are forecast to shift
to being out of the southwest during the evening. The warming trend
continues to be on track with a much warmer than normal Monday
expected. Ensembles have nearly all of the CWA at a >60% to see
highs reach or pass 80 degrees with downslope and some WAA from the
southwest. With the warm, dry air on Monday, RH values out west
reach below 10% via ensemble means. The hang-up on a fire weather
headline is the winds. Even after factoring in that guidance
underestimates winds across SW Kansas, it will still be a struggle
to see gusts at or above 25 mph. Even though criteria is not
expected to be reached, fire weather precautions should still be
taken especially with the very low RH values. If the wind forecast
increases significantly before tomorrow afternoon, a fire weather
headline will be needed.

Tuesday and Wednesday will continue the quiet and dry weather
stretch for SW Kansas. Ensembles have a shortwave trough pattern
over this period, but it is expected to have a minimal tangible
impact outside of a wind shift and cooler temperatures. Preceding a
deep low pressure system that ensembles expect will move into SW
Kansas early Friday, stronger winds Thursday will help culminate in
a significant fire weather risk. Ensembles have RH values at 10-20%
across the far western counties. Unlike Monday, winds should be
stronger with a tighter pressure gradient. While not overwhelming,
gusts up to 30 mph out of the southwest would be adequate for fire
weather criteria. A headline will be needed if Friday`s system
develops and moves as expected.

Lastly to round out the forecast period is the system expected for
Friday. Plenty of details this far out continue to be fuzzy
especially regarding precipitation. Over the past few long-ranged
ensemble runs, some trends have emerged with the backside
precipitation expected. Firstly, the area for potential
precipitation has expanded to include the far western counties with
the ECMWF and ensembles in lock step with each other. The GFS is not
far behind placing the precipitation slightly farther north.
Another notable trend is that what initially looked like could have
been a mixed precipitation event with an overnight transition has
pulled back and now is captured as nearly entirely rain. These
trends are worth monitoring as the week progresses.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 500 PM CDT Sun Mar 9 2025

Excellent flying weather will continue through this TAF period
with VFR/SKC and light winds. After 15z Mon, southwest winds
will increase modestly at all airports, gusting 25-28 kts.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KBJ
AVIATION...Turner