570
FXUS63 KDDC 040501
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1201 AM CDT Mon Aug 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered thunderstorms will be capable of producing locally
  heavy rain, dangerous lightning, and strong/damaging winds
  Sunday evening.

- Southwest Kansas will be dry Monday through Friday, with a
  strong warming trend. Afternoon temperatures will be near 100
  Thursday and Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 227 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

Earlier this morning an upper level trough over western Kansas
is leading to lingering early morning convection across Central
Kansas. This upper trough, embedded in a northwest flow, was
located on the northeast side of an upper level ridge developing
across the southwest United States. Another upper wave was
located in western Wyoming/Northern Colorado based on the left
exit region of a 250mb upper jet and 1.5 400mb PVU. This next
approaching upper level system will approach western Kansas late
day and given a surface boundary over western Kansas, deepening
surface low over eastern Colorado and afternoon mid level lapse
rate >7.5c/km this will bring another round of thunderstorms
late today and overnight. These wet conditions may begin the
work week but hot and dry conditions will be returning to
western Kansas by mid week as the southwestern United States
expands into the Rockies and Plains.

There is a slight chance for severe thunderstorms late today
and early tonight. A surface boundary will be located over
southwest Kansas late in the day as mid level lapse rates
increase to >8c/km and moisture improves. Afternoon clouds are
already developing near and east of our surface boundary where
0-1km forcing is improving, 700mb temperatures are cooler and
CIN is decreasing. As a result we expect a few thunderstorms
(20-40%) are expected to develop by after 3pm east of highway
83, as a few of the CAMS suggest. In this area the shear will be
weak, but given the mid level lapse rates and decreasing CIN,
we will be monitoring the chance for a few severe late
day/evening thunderstorms ahead of the next approaching upper
level trough/250mb jet. The main hazard will be wind gusts 60 to
70 mph and isolated large hail.

For locations near the Colorado border, there will be a greater
risk for very large hail if storms develop late today. Based on
the better shear forecast in this area by early evening and
instability, it appears that the environment would be capable of
a few storms producing very large hail (>2 inches) and wind
gusts up to 60 mph. This is where the Storm Prediction Center
has a slight risk and has also highlighted this area with a
hatched region for very large hail (greater than a 10% chance of
hail >2 inches).

A warming trend is returning, with hot conditions expected
through the end of the work week. Ensembles and deterministic
models remain similar to previous runs indicating an upper ridge
building into the Rockies early in the week and then expanding
into the plains during the latter half of the work week. This
occurs as our next eastern Pacific upper-level trough moves
onshore and begins to cross the Pacific Northwest and
California. Based on forecast 850mb temperatures late in the
week and the agreement among ensembles on +30C 850mb
temperatures, the current forecast appears on track. Highs are
expected to climb to 95 to near 100 degrees by mid week, but
highs around 100 degrees through the start of the weekend may
end up being a few degrees too cool. The latest NBM currently
shows a 50 to 80% chance for highs to be 102 degrees or higher
west of Highway 283 and near the Oklahoma border. Anyone with
outdoor plans during the latter half of this upcoming work week
should be prepared for these hot conditions and take heat safety
precautions.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Mon Aug 4 2025

Mainly VFR conditions are expected to prevail in vicinity of all TAF
sites through much of the period. The HRRR does suggest some level
stratus development within a light/moist southeast upslope flow across
south central Kansas toward daybreak, then spreading northwest toward
the vicinity of KDDC and KHYS generally after 10-12Z where MVFR/IFR
cigs cannot be ruled out. Light southeast winds overnight are expected
to increase 10 to 20kt mid/late morning into early afternoon as an
anchored lee side trough of low pressure in eastern Colorado slowly
strengthens.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Burgert
AVIATION...JJohnson