198
FXUS63 KDDC 110740
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
240 AM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unseasonably warm temperatures continue

- Rain chances early next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 240 AM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

07z surface observations show a stationary boundary draped
across the entire CWA, oriented west-northwest to east-
southeast. This boundary is expected to lift northward as a warm
front into this afternoon. Influenced still by mid to upper
level ridging across the central CONUS, in conjunction with
surface to 850mb west-southwesterly downslope flow, temperatures
will continue to run well above normal in the mid to upper 80s,
with low 90s in south-central Kansas. This same setup will
carry into Sunday with continued very warm temperatures
expected. Into next week, much cooler temperatures are
anticipated as a negatively tilted trough sweeps across the
northern Plains with its attendant cold front moving southward
across western Kansas late in the day Sunday and into Monday.
Temperatures are forecast to be middle 60s Monday. Temperatures
rebound a bit into mid to late week to more seasonable levels.

Precipitation chances continue to be relatively minor through
next week. The first small chance of rain and thunderstorms will
come late in the day Sunday from the aforementioned cold front
moving southward. CAMs indicate rain and thunderstorm
development late afternoon and into the evening. With only
meager instability ahead of the front, organized storms are not
anticipated, so expect general thunder. Precipitation chances
continue through Monday, notably along the stalling boundary in
southeastern portions of the CWA. Into Monday evening and night,
with ongoing west troughing, some additional moisture may be
able to work its way in and supply additional rain chances.
However, with either round of rain, not expecting much in the
way of heavy rainfall given NBM probabilities of exceeding even
0.25" is only about 30-40%, and rainfall 0.75" or more is less
than 20%.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

Warm front continues to slowly lift northward through the area
early this morning, and is currently situated north of DDC and
GCK but still south of HYS. Winds south of the front have turned
southerly whereas HYS winds are still easterly. This easterly,
modestly moist upslope flow north of the front could lead to
patchy fog development later this morning. However,
probabilities from short range guidance continue to remain very
low for impactful reduced visibility for HYS. Therefore, no
mention of that in the TAFs, but this is something we will
continue to monitor through the morning. Into this afternoon,
winds will remain southerly, and become quite breezy and gusty.
Overall, sustained winds of 15-25 knots can be expected, with
gusts 25-35 knots. GCK is forecast to experience the strongest
winds.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Bennett
AVIATION...Bennett