723
FXUS63 KDDC 111006
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
506 AM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unseasonably warm temperatures continue

- Rain chances early next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 240 AM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

07z surface observations show a stationary boundary draped
across the entire CWA, oriented west-northwest to east-
southeast. This boundary is expected to lift northward as a warm
front into this afternoon. Influenced still by mid to upper
level ridging across the central CONUS, in conjunction with
surface to 850mb west-southwesterly downslope flow, temperatures
will continue to run well above normal in the mid to upper 80s,
with low 90s in south-central Kansas. This same setup will
carry into Sunday with continued very warm temperatures
expected. Into next week, much cooler temperatures are
anticipated as a negatively tilted trough sweeps across the
northern Plains with its attendant cold front moving southward
across western Kansas late in the day Sunday and into Monday.
Temperatures are forecast to be middle 60s Monday. Temperatures
rebound a bit into mid to late week to more seasonable levels.

Precipitation chances continue to be relatively minor through
next week. The first small chance of rain and thunderstorms will
come late in the day Sunday from the aforementioned cold front
moving southward. CAMs indicate rain and thunderstorm
development late afternoon and into the evening. With only
meager instability ahead of the front, organized storms are not
anticipated, so expect general thunder. Precipitation chances
continue through Monday, notably along the stalling boundary in
southeastern portions of the CWA. Into Monday evening and night,
with ongoing west troughing, some additional moisture may be
able to work its way in and supply additional rain chances.
However, with either round of rain, not expecting much in the
way of heavy rainfall given NBM probabilities of exceeding even
0.25" is only about 30-40%, and rainfall 0.75" or more is less
than 20%.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 506 AM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

Breezy to gusty winds southerly winds will be the main weather
impact today across central and southwest Kansas. Sustained
winds 15 to 25 knots, with gusts 25 to around 35 knots, are
expected this afternoon and this evening. Breezy conditions will
continue into early Sunday morning.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Bennett
AVIATION...Bennett