803
FXUS63 KDDC 191017
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
517 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain and thunderstorm chances increase this weekend. Northern
  zones will have the highest probability of measurable rain
  with lesser amounts across south central Kansas.

- Strong cold front behind weekend storm system will lead to
  beginning of cooler period with highs in the 70s to low 80s
  next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 240 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

The weather pattern over the next few days will consist of an upper
level area of high pressure over the Southern Plains and an upper
level low digging into the Desert Southwest today, Four Corners
region by Friday night, and into the Central High Plains by Saturday
night. Southwest flow aloft is expected over the area as this
feature approaches.

As for the weather pattern closer to the surface, expect mostly
clear skies today with a weak cold front moving through the
area this morning. Skies will be mostly clear throughout the
day with winds shifting from the southwest this morning to the
northwest by this afternoon. Highs today look to range from the
upper 80s across west central and far western Kansas where the
cold front will move through early this morning to upper 90s
across south central Kansas where the cold front is not expected
to move through until the early afternoon. Currently, there is
a 20-50 percent chance of temperatures exceeding 100 degrees
across Barber County with less than 20 percent across the
remainder of south central Kansas. Winds then become almost calm
tonight as high pressure oozes into the forecast area. Lows
tonight look to range from the mid 50s across west central
Kansas to upper 60s across south central Kansas. A quiet weather
pattern continues through the day Friday with an slight chance
of thunderstorms Friday night as a weak disturbance moves
through the area. Currently short range ensemble models show
there is less than a 20 percent chance of 0.10 inches of rain or
more Friday night. Highs Friday will generally be in the 90s
with lows Friday night ranging from the low 60s along the KS/CO
border to low 70s across south central Kansas.

A better chance of precipitation is expected Saturday into this
weekend as the aforementioned upper level low moves just north of
the area. As of the current mid term ensemble runs, the probability
of a half of an inch of rain or more this weekend ranges from less
than 20 percent across south central Kansas to over 50 percent north
of a line from Great Bend, Dodge City, to Liberal. This system will
also usher in colder air to the area Sunday into next week. Highs
will start out ranging from the low 80s west to mid 90s across south
central Kansas Saturday. We then see temperatures only reaching into
the 70s to low 80s Sunday through next week. The coldest
temperatures over the next 7 days looks to be Monday morning. Lows
look to range from the mid 40s across far western Kansas to low 50s
across south central Kansas. There is currently a 25 percent chance
that temperatures at or below 45 degrees will be possible
across portions of west central Kansas.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 517 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

VFR conditions will prevail today with mostly clear skies.
Winds will start out form a southwesterly direction early this
morning, curling to the northwest by late morning behind a cold
front. Winds will then become light and variable tonight.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Hovorka_42