604
FXUS63 KDDC 181934
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
234 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

-  Elevated north winds and a much cooler Friday and Saturday.

-  Small chance (<30% via ensembles) for weak thunderstorms in
   the southeast portion of the CWA Friday night.

-  Widespread rain chances (>75% via ensembles) for rain
   accumulation east of Highway 83 on Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 229 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

After the cold frontal passage this morning, temperatures across SW
Kansas are much cooler than the days previous. Highs are forecast to
reach only into the 50s and 60s today aided by continuing CAA with
the north/northeast winds. Current RAP mesoanalysis depicts a deep
trough over the 4 corner states. This deep low has vertical
continuity and is forecasted by ensembles to continue moving
eastward and its` influence reaching the forecast area through the
weekend. In the meantime, storms are possible tonight in the
southeast portion of the forecast area. Barber county is clipped by
a marginal severe weather risk. CAMs still disagree somewhat despite
a somewhat small temporal gap. For example the HRRR contains nearly
all convection outside of the forecast area besides around Barber
county while the NAMNST has weak thunderstorms stretching as
westward as far as Dodge City. Environmental parameters echo the
sentiment that any storms that do develop will be marginally severe
at the strongest with the storms being elevated having low CAPE and
shear values in forecast soundings. Hail is the only reasonable
severe threat and again even that is fairly minimal.

Into the very early part of Saturday morning, temperatures are
forecast to get close to freezing for the western portion of the
forecast area with continued CAA. Saturday will be quiet and mostly
dry between the convection potential on Friday and the widespread
showers on Sunday with highs in the 50s.

On Sunday, the aforementioned low reaches Texas and bringing showers
across Kansas. Models and ensembles having a defined line the wet
and dry areas of the system. Currently, the general consensus is
that this axis will set up around Highway 83. East of there, up to a
half inch of rain is expected with ensembles having a >50% for that
much rain everywhere east of Highway 83. It should be taken in mind
that any shift up until the system arrives could drastically change
where the wet/dry divide will take hold. A few miles to the
southeast could leave Dodge City nearly completely dry, but trends
have held relatively steady over the previous few runs.

Into Monday, sharp WAA will help return warm temperatures to SW
Kansas with highs via ensembles pushing 80 degrees across the CWA.
Temperatures for the front half of the week are then forecast to be
steady in the 70/80s. Ensembles are excited about a more active
synoptic weather pattern by the middle of the week. This pattern
should bring multiple rounds of potential precipitation if
everything materializes as the ensembles suggest.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1156 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

MVFR is the expected dominate flight conditions this TAF period due
to lowered ceilings with breezy northeast winds following a cold
front that moved through this early morning. The ceilings may rise
and fall bouncing the flight conditions between MVFR and VFR, but
will primarily be within the MVFR category. Around 0Z, DDC has the
potential to see VCSH, but ensembles chances (<20%) are too low for
inclusion in the TAFs.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KBJ
AVIATION...KBJ