328
FXUS63 KDDC 300700
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
200 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024

...Updated Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unseasonably hot Monday afternoon in the lower 90s.

- Strong cold front Monday evening will bring northeast wind
  gusts near 40 mph, followed by refreshingly cooler air
  Tuesday.

- Southwest Kansas will remain dry for the foreseeable future,
  through at least October 10th.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024

An exceptionally dry and quiet weather regime continues with no
impacts. Midnight infrared satellite imagery continued to
depict a perfectly clear sky across SW KS and all adjoining
areas. Models show a net warming of 2-4C at 850 mb Monday, and
coupled with some SWly downslope prefrontal compression, and the
increasingly dry topsoils/full sunshine, temperatures will
easily achieve the unseasonably hot lower 90s this afternoon.
00z GEFS ensembles show near 100% probability of temperatures
reaching 90, especially north and west of DDC, in the prefrontal
compression warm sector ahead of the advancing cold front. The
forecast high temperature at DDC Monday is 92, which is 14 above
normal for the last day of September, and only 4 away from the
record high of 96/1994. Also expecting a near record high at
Garden City, a forecast of 93 with a record of 96/2009.

A rather vigorous but dry cold front will be entering the
northwest zones about 7 pm, be at DDC 8-9pm, and easily exit the
southeast zones by midnight. Models continue to depict NEly
850 mb flow of 35-40 mph behind the cold front, and since the
cold front will be arriving in a warm well mixed boundary layer,
some of this momentum will reach the ground in gusts this
evening. 00z MET guidance was among the strongest on winds this
evening, averaging 22-24 kts sustained along the preferred US 83
corridor (GCK-LBL), and followed these numbers.

Cool advection will reduce 850 mb temperatures about 10C on
Tuesday, providing refreshingly cooler air, with afternoon
temperatures reduced to the lower to mid 70s. 1032 mb cool
surface high near North Platte 7 am Tuesday will quickly dive
southeast to near Wichita by 7 pm Tuesday while weakening. Winds
will trend light and variable as a result, delivering a
fantastic fall day for the first day of October.

The cooler air will be very short lived, with return flow
and a SWly low level jet already establishing by sunrise
Wednesday. This process will keep radiational cooling muted and
keep morning lows near normal Wednesday. All models shows rapid,
impressive warming Wednesday, with a net warming of +10-12C at
850 mb, enhanced by SWly downslope. 00z GEFS ensembles show a
greater than 90% probability of temperatures surpassing 90 once
again, south and west of DDC. No changes with another sunny warm
dry afternoon Thursday, once again near 90 at 4 pm. A weak
frontal boundary is progged to sag southward Friday, enough to
remove the SWly downslope component, and adding a more easterly
wind, which should reduce temperatures closer to normal Friday
as NBM suggests.

ECMWF/EPS guidance shows this boundary washing out, being pushed
out by another strong surge of hot dry SWly downslope Saturday.
Record highs for October 5th are in the mid 90s, and these seem
reachable in some of the warmest guidance, and NBM may not be
warm enough Saturday. Another dry cold front will once again
trim temperatures for the second half of the weekend.

Southwest Kansas has gone about a week now with no rainfall, and
a very long dry spell will continue. We are confident that we
will stay completely dry for the next 10 days, at least through
October 10th, and probably much longer into mid October.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1100 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024

Excellent flying weather will continue through 00z Tue, with
more VFR/SKC and light winds. A dry cold front will race through
the airports 00-03z Tue, with strong northeast winds gusting
30-35 kts.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Turner
AVIATION...Turner