774
FXUS63 KDDC 041051
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
551 AM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Next round of rain this morning will affect mainly south
  central Kansas, which is where the highest probability of
  0.25" or more rainfall is greatest (20-40% Ashland to Stafford
  line, 50-80% Barber County).

- Final round of rain later this afternoon and tonight will
  focus on far southwest Kansas. Transition to wet snow likely
  around Elkhart late tonight. 1/2" to 1" snowfall across
  portions of far southwest Kansas. No impacts expected.

- Cold morning on Sunday with widespread hard freeze likely as
  lows will range from the upper teens out west to upper 20s
  across south central Kansas.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 357 AM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

The next wave of precipitation (2 of 3) was developing just to the
south of southwest Kansas as of 08Z (3 AM CDT), which was tied to
another jet streak rounding the southeastern periphery of the large
upper level trough over the Southwest. The core of this next wave of
rain will advance northeast through the morning, but this core will
largely impact areas of Northwest Texas through Oklahoma into south
central Kansas, closer to the quasi-stationary polar front. Given
the above-mentioned, most areas of southwest Kansas will see little
in the way of additional rainfall today...generally a tenth of an
inch or less through midday. The exception to this will be the Red
Hills region where, particularly Barber County, where much of the
model consensus shows one-quarter to one-half inch additional
rainfall. This includes latest 100-member Grand Ensemble which shows
Probability of Exceedance of 0.50" in the 30 to 60% range (60%
around Kiowa, KS -- the southeastern most town in the NWS DDC area).

This afternoon, we will see a transition in the focus of
precipitation back to far southwest Kansas as yet another jet streak
rounds the trough axis this afternoon and evening. This will
interact with a secondary advancing cold front with much cooler air
behind it. We will be increasing POPs later this afternoon to 75+
percent in far southwest Kansas as a result. Late afternoon/early
evening, the HRRR does show some very slight convective instability
to support perhaps a few lightning flashes, so we will include a
mention of thunder from roughly Elkhart to Johnson. This activity
will mark the beginning of the final round of precipitation for this
multi-day event, as the main body of the upper trough/low moves east
into West Texas on Saturday. A northern stream disturbance moving
across the Upper Midwest will usher in colder, drier air in the 850-
700mb layer, which will advance on Southwest Kansas quickly during
the day Saturday. This will end the precipitation event for good
across our forecast area. We will maintain some higher POPs along
the Oklahoma line on Saturday, but even this may be a bit ambitious.
As far as precipitation type is concerned, we believe there will be
just enough cold air to change rain over to a wet snow around
Elkhart later tonight/early Saturday morning. At this time, we will
be calling for around an inch of snow for Elkhart with most other
surrounding areas of far southwest Kansas generally one-half inch or
less of wet snow accumulation.

Cold air will continue to push south with the next concern being a
hard freeze early Sunday morning. Despite the fact our southwest
Kansas region is still within our climatological "cold season" as
far as average last 32-degree day is concerned, we have had a very
warm stretch with the month of March being +5.9 degF above normal at
Dodge City, so there has been a fair amount of blooming flora and
green-up. Our official forecast low Sunday morning is lower to mid
20s for much of southwest Kansas with even a few upper teens
possible across far west central Kansas. After this cold bout this
weekend, next week we will recover nicely as a much warmer and
quieter pattern builds in. Widespread highs in the 70s and lower 80s
will begin Tuesday with mid to perhaps upper 80s by Friday of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 548 AM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

Areas of light rain will overspread southwest Kansas this
morning, mainly affecting DDC to HYS terminals. Widespread low
stratus continued to expand with ceilings below 1000 feet (IFR
category), and latest trends in the HRRR model suggest IFR
ceilings will likely persist much of the day, so the 12Z TAF
reflects are more pessimistic forecast with IFR hanging on
longer, if not the entire day. Winds will be fairly light out of
the east/northeast much of the day, but a strong wind shift to
the north will occur toward the latter portion of this TAF
period later tonight with 20 to 25 knot sustained north wind and
gusts to 35 knots possible.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Umscheid
AVIATION...Umscheid