932
FXUS63 KDDC 122355
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
655 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A strong cold front will race through SW KS Sunday evening
  with strong northeast winds.

- Dramatically cooler with thickening and lowering clouds
  Monday.

- Scattered rain showers expected late Monday through early
  Tuesday.

- Windy and warmer Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Midday surface observations showed prefrontal southwest winds
across SW KS, warming temperatures rapidly through the 80s.
Several locations will reach the lower 90s this afternoon,
especially near and southeast of Dodge City, such as the Red
Hills, where downslope compression is maximized. Infrared
satellite imagery depicted widespread cirrus arriving in the
southwest flow aloft, as well as the cold front making steady
progress southward through NW KS. Cirrus may hold temperatures
below the warmest guidance. Cold front appears to be near or
slightly ahead of schedule, and will enter the northern zones
about 4 pm, easily clear Dodge City by 7 pm, and exit into
Oklahoma no later than 10 pm. Followed the strongest guidance
for the post frontal northeast winds, averaging 20-30 mph with
higher gusts. Elevated northeast winds will continue through
sunrise Monday, as strong cold advection drives 850 mb
temperatures down to near 10C. Shaved several degrees off NBM
guidance for low temperatures Monday, into the lower 50s, but
this is still several degrees above mid October normals.

Monday will be dramatically cooler with increasing and lowering
clouds. Cloud ceilings will gradually lower through the day as
warm advection aloft overruns the invading much cooler air mass.
Northeast winds will trend easterly and slowly decrease through
Monday as 1020 mb high pressure builds into northern Kansas.
Clouds and cold advection will reduce afternoon temperatures to
the lower to mid 60s. Stayed above the coldest NAM guidance
(50s) but NAM may verify where clouds prevent insolation.
Alternatively, highs in the lower to mid 60s may occur by
midday, with a non-diurnal trend downward through the afternoon.
Given the developing overrunning pattern, scattered rain showers
are expected to develop Monday afternoon, favoring the central
and southeast counties. Rain may also contribute to falling
temperatures Monday afternoon. QPF will be limited, with NBM
showing high probability of amounts in the 0.10-0.20 inch range.
With models displaying little to no elevated instability, kept
all thunder out of the forecast.

Flow amplifies significantly Tuesday, as a strong midlevel
cyclone comes onshore in California, forcing high pressure aloft
to strengthen to near 595 dm over Texas. Improving weather will
result Tuesday, with south winds returning, decreasing clouds,
and afternoon temperatures in the 70s. Additional warming into
the lower 80s, and stronger south winds, are expected Wednesday.
Great Basin cyclone will make eastward progress, with stronger
lee cyclogenesis over northeast Colorado, resulting in south
winds gusting near 40 mph Wednesday afternoon.

Model guidance depicts the Great Basin cyclone ejecting into the
northern Rockies Thursday. Above normal temperatures and strong
south winds will continue as a result. With much of the energy
from this trough ejecting well to the north into Canada through
Friday, models are trending to a weaker first cold front
passage on Friday. A much stronger secondary cold front appears
timed for Saturday, as additional jet energy dives into the
northern plains. Rainfall prospects with Saturday`s cold front
appear limited with scant moisture, but much colder morning lows
are expected by next Sunday, from the mid 30s to the mid 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 651 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

A cold front continued to push south at the onset of this TAF
period, resulting in a north to northeast wind. A northerly wind
this evening will become northeast or east-northeast on Monday
with a gradual lowering of the cloud ceiling. Latest HREF model
suggests MVFR flight category building in during the last 6
hours or so of this TAF period with widely scattered showers and
perhaps an isolated thunderstorm or two. For now, we will leave
precipitation out of the TAFs, but keep the MVFR forecast at all
terminals beginning early/mid afternoon Monday. Aviation
conditions will continue to deteriorate with ceiling likely to
fall well below 1000 feet (IFR) and perhaps LIFR (below 500
feet) later in the night Monday.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Turner
AVIATION...Umscheid