668
FXUS63 KDDC 040649
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
149 AM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry weather along with seasonably pleasant temperatures is
  forecast through Monday.

- Warmer weather will return by Tuesday and persist through at
  least Saturday, with highs in the mid to upper 80s.

- There is uncertainty on the timing of the next cold front
  sometime between Sunday and Tuesday.

- Rain chances are near 0% through next Saturday; and next
  Sunday will likely be dry as well.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 124 AM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026

A reinforcing cool front is passing this morning, with winds
returning to the northeast at 10-12 mph for today. This air
mass is forecast to persist through Monday, with high
temperatures near seasonal averages in the mid to upper 70s.
Winds are predicted to return from the south on Monday; and
this will be a transition day to warmer weather. The only
changes within the Tuesday to Saturday time frame will be the
strength of the persistent south winds. Given a weak pressure
gradient, winds will only average 10-15 mph during the day and 5
to 10 mph or less at night. Winds will increase from the south
at 15-25 mph by Saturday as the mid to upper level flow becomes
light southwesterly, encouraging surface troughing across the
central and northern high plains. The various ensemble means
indicate 850mb temperatures steady at about 20C at Dodge City
from Tuesday through Saturday, suggesting at least mid 80s for
highs, with upper 80s certainly possible in a few spots.
However, given a little more in the way of downslope flow by
Sunday, highs in the 85 to 90 degree range look more likely,
with 90th percentile 850mb temperatures around 22-23C. But this
is assuming that we don`t have a cold frontal passage before
Sunday afternoon. The ensemble means suggest a cooldown by
Monday or Tuesday; but some of the ensemble members show the
front passing Sunday. Bottom line is that there is a high degree
of certainty that warm and dry weather will persist through
Saturday; but there is uncertainty thereafter.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1251 AM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026

A weak cold front will pass across the TAF sites, with winds
becoming north to northeasterly at 8-10 kts early in the period.
Winds will gradually veer to the southeast later in the period
but remain light as surface high pressure moves off to the
east. VFR conditions are forecast with clear skies.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Finch
AVIATION...Finch