365
FXUS63 KDDC 111900
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
200 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A break from the summer heat, with below normal temperatures
  Monday afternoon.

- Any thunderstorms Monday afternoon and evening will favor the
  southern zones adjacent to Oklahoma.

- Afternoon temperatures will show a warming trend through the
  week.

- Southwest Kansas will be dry Tuesday through Friday.

- The arrival of the monsoonal moisture plume may bring a return
  of scattered thunderstorms this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

Midday satellite imagery showed convective debris clouds from
last night`s MCS, and a cumulus/stratocumulus field across
SW KS. Last night`s thunderstorm complex has pushed the
effective baroclinic frontal boundary south of SW KS, with a
light and variable wind field across SW KS. 12z ARW/NAM capture
this evolution well, with those models forecasting scattered
thunderstorms south of SW KS this afternoon and evening, from
near the Raton Mesa to the panhandles. Any marginally severe
hail/wind is expected to remain south of the Oklahoma border
through tonight, but some activity at least near the KS/OK
border is probable. Reduced pops this afternoon through tonight
to slight chance (<25%) and kept them confined to south of US
50. Most locations will be dry, with the northern periphery of
the expected MCS expected to skirt the Oklahoma border. A
refreshing break from the summer heat in the post frontal air
this afternoon, with temperatures holding below normal in the
lower to mid 80s.

Very quiet weather is expected this week, typical of August,
with a significant warming trend. The dominant midlevel summer
anticyclone centered over the Great Basin Monday, will phase
eastward with time this week, centered near the Four Corners
Wednesday, the central/southern plains Thursday, and the
Mississippi valley Friday. High confidence SW KS will be dry
Tuesday through Friday, as steering flow from the Rockies is
removed, along with strong subsidence. Cloud cover will be
minimal this week, further encouraging afternoon temperatures to
warm easily through the 90s to near 100 by Friday. NBM does
return some pops for showers and thunderstorms next weekend,
supported by ECMWF and its EPS ensembles, showing the monsoonal
moisture plume edging eastward onto the plains. 12z GFS/GEFS
also shows this subtle synoptic shift this weekend, and this
will be the next chance of rain for most of SW KS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1100 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

Excellent flying weather will persist through this TAF period,
with VFR, along with light and variable winds. Winds outside of
any convection are expected to remain below 10 kts through the
period. A cumulus field is expected this afternoon. Any
additional thunderstorm development after 21z Mon would favor
areas near the Oklahoma border, most likely south of LBL and
southeast of DDC. Opted to keep the LBL/DDC TAFs dry with this
TAF update, with confidence of impacts at these airports quite
low.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Turner
AVIATION...Turner