469
FXUS63 KDDC 092311
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
511 PM CST Sat Nov 9 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Southwest Kansas will be dry through at least next weekend.

- Mild afternoons will continue through next week, with
  afternoon temperatures averaging above November normals.

- No hard killing freezes expected through next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM CST Sat Nov 9 2024

Impressive mature/occluded cyclone was near the Kansas/Nebraska
border at midday, with the midlevel and surface cyclones near
McCook, Nebraska. Wraparound stratocumulus will continue to
diminish through this afternoon as the cyclone exits through
Nebraska. Southwest to west winds will gust to near 30 mph
through this afternoon. Downslope components will balance out
any cool advection, or refrigeration from the extensive Colorado
snowpack, with afternoon temperatures warming well into the 50s.

Clear and quiet tonight with light west winds. Sunrise Sunday
temperatures will be seasonably cold, in the 30s, except for a
light freeze (28-32) along and west of US 83.

All models show strong warming Sunday, as zonal flow returns
aloft, and 850 mb temperatures warm 8-10C. Gentle westerly
downslope will also assist the warmup, and added several degrees
to Sunday`s max temperature grid, closer to the 12z MAV
guidance. Mid to upper 60s will be common, several degrees above
normal for mid November. A beautiful fall day will be enjoyed
Veteran`s Day Monday, with light winds and again afternoon
temperatures well into the 60s.

A vigorous, progressive, largely dry shortwave is forecast to
approach from the Rockies Tuesday, forcing midlevel flow to
become SWly, developing the next lee trough, and generating
elevated to strong south winds. Increased winds and wind gusts
Tuesday in line with the 90%ile of the NBM; with models
generating 850 mb wind fields near 40 mph at max heating, gusts
of that magnitude are expected Tuesday midday and afternoon.
More mild, above normal temperatures will prevail, well into the
60s. 12z GEFS ensembles show the highest probability of reaching
70 degrees (near 50%) in the Liberal vicinity. Recent widespread
rainfall should keep most locations in the 60s.

Shortwave passes about sunrise Wednesday with little fanfare.
Perhaps a sprinkle near the southeast zones early Wednesday, but
certainly nothing worth mentioning relative to measurable QPF.
Did notice 12z ECMWF is much sharper with this wave, with a
better shot of showers for the southeast zones Wednesday
morning, but will leave the forecast dry (pop < 15%) for now.
Only expecting a NWly wind shift and a few extra passing
clouds. Airmass behind this cold front will still be quite mild
for the time of year, Pacific in origin, and NWly downslope will
mask any cool advection anyway. Still near 60 4 pm Wednesday.

Yet another strong warmup Thursday and Friday, as broad ridging
expands over the plains, in response to the next Pacific
longwave trough arriving on the west coast by 6 pm Friday.
Temperatures will warm easily through the 60s both days, and as
the topsoils continue to dry out, 70s are probable by Friday.
Probability of 2m T > 70 is highest adjacent to Oklahoma, as
shown by 12z GEFS ensemble guidance.

Southwest Kansas will certainly stay dry through at least next
Saturday. Long range guidance for the next Pacific trough
suggests the trough will fragment into at least two pieces over
the Rockies, with the first shortwave passing north of SW KS
about next Saturday. Another breezy unseasonably mild afternoon
would result. The secondary piece may take a more southern
track, and generate the next potential round of rain/snow about
Monday November 18th, but this is at the edge of useful
predictability, and is little more than conjecture at this
point.

For at least another week, the lack of widespread killing
freezes will continue, with only a few light freezes on the
higher terrain of the western zones on the cooler nights.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 509 PM CST Sat Nov 9 2024

Widely scattered showers and ceilings between 3000 and 7000 feet
AGL were still occurring across northern Kansas at 22Z today due
to the presence of a cold (-22C) 500 mb low centered over
southern Nebraska. Short term models were in good agreement that
the upper low and associated cloud cover/precipitation will
move into Nebraska over the next few hours as a westerly
downslope flow develops. This will bring clear to mostly clear
conditions to southwest Kansas over the next 24 hours, with
gusty west winds of 1520 knots decreasing to 10 knots or less.
Westerly winds of 10 knots or less are expected to persist
through 00Z Monday.


&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Turner
AVIATION...Burgert