348
FXUS63 KDDC 222254
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
454 PM CST Wed Jan 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A cold front today will bring breezy northwest winds

- An overall dry pattern for at least the next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 417 PM CST Wed Jan 22 2025

A broad positively tilted upper trough covered the northern
Plains and Rockies, advecting a broad area of steeper lapse
rates into the High Plains of eastern Colorado and western
Kansas This afternoon. A nwrly 300 mb jet segment over the nw
pacific region overlaid another large surface high, ready to
spread across the Rockies into the central Plains in the coming
days.

The aforementioned steeper lapse rates were contributing to
gusty winds to around 27 kts already by mid morning. Latest GFS
LAMP guidance shows the gusts ceasing by around 00 UTC/6 PM CST
this evening.

Remaining snowpack along the OK state line from last weeks
storm continues to undergo sublimation as well as diurnal
melting and should have little if any impact on temperatures at
this point. A small range of outcomes of about 4 degrees exists
with respect to Tonights (Thursday mornings) overnight lows.
For instance the NBM ensemble member 25th to 75th percentiles
range from 17F to 21F at Dodge , 9F to 13 F at Syracuse and 21
to 24F at Medicine Lodge.

Friday looks to be a relatively mild afternoon as temperatures
are forecast to climb into the 40s and perhaps the lower 50s in
the far west. The next chance for precipitation based on ECMWF
ensemble means for 24 hour QPF is based around the 30th of the
month, next Thursday. The GFS ensembles seems to have matched up
timewise a little more with the ECMWF as well. Lots of
uncertainty with expect to precipitation type if any, as MOS
output is showing highs in the 40s mid to late next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 452 PM CST Wed Jan 22 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through tomorrow with mid level
clouds around the HYS terminal overnight spreading south and
around the other terminals by tomorrow afternoon. Winds will
generally be from the northwest through tomorrow.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Russell
AVIATION...Hovorka_42