126
FXUS63 KDDC 121003
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
503 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry conditions will persist through mid-week.

- Unseasonably warm temperatures expected Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025

WV imagery indicates a closed upper low anchored in the southeast
US along the Gulf Coast while a weak northwesterly flow aloft
prevails across the Western High Plains. Near the surface, a lee
side trough of low pressure remains anchored in eastern Colorado.

Tranquil conditions will continue through mid-week as the SREF
indicates the closed upper low beginning to lift slowly northeast
late today while weak ridging aloft edges eastward across the high
plains of eastern Colorado/western Kansas. Although prevailing
southerlies will continue to draw minimal moisture up into central
and portions of southwest Kansas, a lack of instability combined
with an extremely weak northwest flow aloft will keep precip chances
(<10%) at bay the next few days. An ongoing warming trend continues
today as prevailing southerlies draw warmer air into western Kansas,
pushing H85 temperatures up near 20C in central Kansas to a little
above 25C closer to the Colorado line. Under ample sunshine, look
for widespread afternoon highs in the 80s(F), especially with the
HREF painting a 70 to 90% probability of temperatures exceeding
80F with a 90% probability of topping 85F in extreme southwest
Kansas. The trend persists Tuesday into Wednesday with highs
ranging from the mid/upper 80s(F) to the lower/mid 90s(F).

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 501 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025

VFR conditions will prevail in vicinity of all TAF sites through
late evening. Light southerly winds through late morning are
expected to increase 15 to 25kt with gusts up to 30kt in the
afternoon as lee side troughing strengthens in eastern Colorado.
Winds are then expected to subside below 15kt later this evening
with the loss of daytime heating.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JJohnson
AVIATION...JJohnson