100
FXUS63 KDDC 071000
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
400 AM CST Thu Nov 7 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mild today with the best chance of showers west

- Still looking at a heavy rainfall event Friday

- Weekend looking drier and mild

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 222 AM CST Thu Nov 7 2024

A mild today is expected today with scattered showers. The highest
probabilities of rain will be first relegated across western Kansas
today, with higher precipitation probabilities spreading eastward
late tonight across the FA. The 00Z KDDC RAOB showed a PWAT of 0.74".
This PWAT is expected to increase to around 1" Friday. This is very
moist and is above the 90th percentile for PWAT values for this time
of year. As such, a better chance at widespread rainfall is expected
Friday. This is in association with an approaching large 500 hPa
low impacting the region Friday with considerable moisture advection
across the state. The WPC QPF rainfall amounts show a widespread
1-3" storm total precipitation amounts through Friday. The heavy
rainfall concern also matches EPS ensembles members, which echo this
concern with numerous members on the wet side. EPS probabilities
of >1" are also quite hefty with probabilities in the 60 to 100%
range for much of the FA. The main synoptic low will finally eject
out across the state on Saturday with rain tapering off as this system
moves away from the FA. Feeling moderately confident that these rainfall
amounts will pan out since there is some consensus in both an ensemble
perspective as well as a probabilistic perspective.

The weekend is looking dry with fairly mild highs. 50s Saturday and
60s Sunday. Even with the warmth Sunday, there doesn`t appear to
be major fire weather concerns. This may be particularly true if
the rains earlier in the period pans out. Regardless of this potential
outcome, both RH`s and winds looks to be very marginal even if highs
peak out in the 60s.

The next business week is looking to be fairly mild and dry. There
may be another frontal passage early Wednesday with a drop in temperatures
and an increase in winds. There might be some very light precipitation
associated with the front, however, much of the ensembles shows the
heavier amounts confined to eastern Kansas.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 400 AM CST Thu Nov 7 2024

A mix of MVFR to IFR cigs today as plenty of low clouds will prevail.
Scattered shra will be possible at each terminal during the period.
The best chance of -shra will be in the morning and then again through
the evening. Winds will primarily be from the NE 5-15 kt as well.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Sugden
AVIATION...Sugden