348
FXUS63 KDDC 261903
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
203 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025

...Updated Discussion/Key Messages...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cloudy and unseasonably cool Saturday.

- Windy and much warmer Sunday with strong south winds.

- Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Sunday afternoon
  and evening. Coverage will be limited. There may be no storms
  at all.

- Strong southwest winds and much drier behind the dryline
  Monday.

- Noticeably cooler behind a cold front Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 203 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025

Midday surface observations showed unseasonably cool and moist
southeast upslope flow across SW KS, with a stratus overcast
covering the entire region. Very few if any breaks are expected
in the overcast through sunset, as such temperatures will
struggle well below normal, primarily in the 50s.

Temperatures will fall very little tonight, at most places only
a few degrees, into the lower 50s, with widespread stratus
continuing and preventing radiational cooling. Areas of
drizzle and fog are expected tonight and early Sunday, as
moisture advection continues on southeast winds. Included areas
of fog and drizzle in the weather grids. Most showers and
convection overnight will favor central/eastern Kansas, but kept
limited pops in favoring the eastern zones for continuity.

Strong closed midlevel cyclone will make little progress over
the Great Basin Sunday, but it will be close enough to energize
SWly midlevel flow over SW KS, and near 990 mb surface lee
cyclogenesis over NE Colorado by 7 pm. This evolution will force
south winds to increase significantly after noon Sunday, with
gusts of 40-45 mph common. Stratus will hold tough through the
morning, but will dissolve from west to east in the afternoon.
The combination of sunshine and continue moisture advection will
produce an axis of strong instability Sunday afternoon/evening,
with MUCAPE to near 4000 J/kg along a sharpening dryline. With
strong bulk shear in place, the question is where a storm can
initiate on the dryline boundary at peak heating Sunday. Few
CAMs even attempt initiation, a function of forcing for ascent
and cooling aloft remaining west, and morning stratus limiting
insolation. Purposely limited pops to slight chance (<25%), as
the odds of rainfall at any one spot are very low. Should a
thunderstorm develop late Sunday, it would certainly be severe
with large hail and a tornado risk given CAPE/shear favorable
for supercells, but the most likely scenario favors no storms
in SW KS at all. Temperatures will be a function of efficiency
of the stratus clearing, and forecast 70s east and 80s west, but
there is a temperature bust potential especially east if
stratus lingers.

The Great Basin trough breaks into two pieces Monday, the first
of which ejects into the northern plains. This synoptic
evolution will drag the dryline eastward and through SW KS,
with the dryline modeled to be near the southeast tip of Barber
county during the potential for convective initiation at peak
heating Monday afternoon. Much drier air and strong southwest
winds are expected, with downslope compression sending afternoon
temperatures well into the 80s. Associated cold front will
arrive Monday night with elevated north winds, followed by
noticeably cooler air Tuesday. The second piece of the trough
left behind over Arizona Tuesday, will eject onto the southern
plains Wednesday. NBM continues with an uptick in pops
Wednesday for showers and thunderstorms, supported by ECMWF and
the many ensemble members, but the expectation is the heaviest
rain and any severe potential will remain southeast of SW KS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1100 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025

Poor flying weather will prevail through this TAF cycle, with
widespread IFR/LIFR stratus, and somewhat reduced visibility in
BR/FG. Any rain shower coverage is forecast to remain near 30%,
and opted to keep any rain out of this set of TAFs. Visibility
will fall to 1-2 sm at times, especially 06-15z Sun. Southeast
winds will prevail through the period. After 18z Sun, strong
south winds are expected, gusting 35-40 kts, with the strongest
winds expected at GCK. Stratus ceilings will gradually erode
from west to east through Sunday.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ today for KSZ061-
062-074>076-084>086.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Turner
AVIATION...Turner