023
FXUS63 KDDC 150835
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
235 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warmer temperatures Friday and Saturday.

- Widespread accumulating rainfall from late Sunday through
  Monday night. Highest chances (80%) and amounts (in excess of
  an inch) will be across the Red Hill region of south central
  Kansas.

- Strong north winds developing mid week as much colder air
  returns to western Kansas. Wind Chills in the teens likely
  (60-70%) Wednesday and Thursday morning.

- Currently monitoring the chance for some light snow mid week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 223 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024

Short term ensembles this morning remain similar to previous
runs and are in good agreement showing a surface trough of low
pressure deepening along the lee of the Rockies today as an
upper level trough/low moves into Nevada. As a piece of this
upper level system lifts northeast toward the Northern Plains
early this weekend, the surface trough of low pressure will
shift into western Kansas, with a cold front approaching the
area. Ahead of this cold front, unseasonably warm conditions are
expected. Given the good agreement among CAMS, boundary layer
to 700 mb temperatures should support highs rebounding into the
60s today and Saturday. Strong mixing potential from winds
transferring to the surface could push highs near 70F in some
areas, especially on Saturday.

On Saturday night, the cold front will cross southwest Kansas,
marking the beginning of a major shift in weather for the
region.

On Sunday, the cold front will become nearly stationary over
southern Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle as a deepening upper
low moves east across southern Arizona. As this upper low tracks
eastward into New Mexico on Sunday night, improving moisture
and lift will begin to develop along and north of the surface
boundary as a mid level jet streak rotates around the upper low
and approaches western Kansas.

This large area of forcing will continue to move northward into
Kansas through Monday as the upper low begins to track
northeast across the Texas Panhandle. Widespread rain is still
expected on Monday, but the potential for heavy rain now appears
less likely for southwest Kansas. At this time about 2030% of
the ensemble clusters favor the highest rainfall totals staying
south of the Oklahoma border and extending into south central
Kansas. Even with this low percentage, am beginning to think
this may be a reasonable solution, with confidence in this
scenario now at 5060%. Reason for this increasing confidence in
the further south solution on where heavier rainfall may occur
early next week is due to significant differences in the
position of the 500 mb low between the short term ensembles and
the Dynamic ensemble clusters. The short term ensembles now show
a slower and more southerly track compared to a more
progressive dynamic ensemble clusters. This may be due to the
potential of latent heat release from the widespread convection
that all ensembles have developing Sunday night across
Oklahoma/west Texas. It is interesting to see WPC has now
outlined this area with a slight risk for heavy rainfall on Day
3, and the SPC has included a 15% chance for severe weather
across western Oklahoma on Days 3 and 4. Additionally, the
ongoing ENS and NAEFS ensembles for higher mean PWAT and
climatological percentiles, which have remained consistent over
the past several days, continue to highlight areas from
southwest Oklahoma into central Kansas. Similarly, the ECMWF
Extreme Forecast Index and Shift of Tails have consistently
emphasized this same region...roughly from southwest Oklahoma
into central and eastern Kansas. All of this has increased
confidence in a trend toward lower rainfall totals across
southwest Kansas early next week.

Even with lower rainfall totals appearing increasingly likely
for southwest Kansas, it still appears that clouds and rainfall
will keep temperatures unseasonably cool, with highs in the 40s
and 50s. These chilly temperatures are expected to drop even
further by midweek as strong, gusty north winds develop due to
area of surface low pressure deepening under the negatively
tilted upper trough moving across Kansas on Tuesday and
Wednesday.

These increasing north winds will bring colder air into
southwest Kansas midweek. Combined with the gusty winds, there
is a 6080% chance that wind chills will fall into the teens,
and a few locations could even experience single digit wind
chills on Wednesday or Thursday morning. Additionally, with this
cold air mass in place, there is a small chance that some light
snow may accompany another upper level trough late in the week.
Chances for snow are below 30%, with little, if any,
accumulation expected.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1133 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024

East to southeast winds at less than 10 knots overnight will
shift to the south and increase to around 2025 knots between
15Z and 18Z on Friday as stronger winds in the boundary layer
mix down to the surface. After 00Z Saturday, these gusty
southerly winds will decrease to around 15 knots as the
atmosphere decouples. A low level jet of approximately 45 knots
will then develop across southwest Kansas. There is a 2040%
chance of patchy fog, which may reduce visibility to around 3
miles at times between 11Z and 15Z based on the High Resolution
Ensembles models, mainly in the Garden City and Dodge City
areas. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Burgert
AVIATION...Burgert