007
FXUS63 KDDC 281600
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1000 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2025

...Updated Aviation/Key Messages...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and unseasonably pleasant Friday and Saturday.

- Scattered rain showers expected Sunday afternoon. Some thunder
  is possible.

- Dry and unseasonably mild Monday.

- A strong storm system will cross Kansas Tuesday. Intense north
  winds, and rain and/or wet snow, are expected late Tuesday
  through early Wednesday. A high wind warning will likely be
  required, and winter storm impacts are possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 327 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2025

Current RAP mesoanalysis verifies previous ensemble/model in an
Omega Block developing in the western CONUS although much weaker
than expected. Not much of the synoptic forecast has changed much
except that the eastern low erodes slightly faster than previous
ensemble runs. It does not seem that this change affects the
timing of the other two pressure systems (the high over the
Rockies and the low over the West Coast) moving into and across
the forecast area. Friday is still forecast to be warmer than
normal for the end of February with the southern two rows of
counties at a >50% chance to see highs reach 70 degrees via
ensembles. A low pressure system continues to track
southeastward towards the Great Lakes region that will
dramatically shift the winds to being out of the north while
strengthening them midday Friday. Some CAA will work to prevent
the northern zones from reaching 70 while keeping Saturday
noticeable cooler than Friday by 5-10 degrees. As the ridging
from the Rockies moves into the area Saturday, clear skies will
continue as the northerly winds soften. Focus remains on the low
that will follow behind Saturday`s ridging.

The track of the low has continued to have distinct variance
within different model solutions. The very general trend has
been a northward shift pushing the low more predominately
through Kansas. Compared to previous runs, the ECMWF has shifted
closer to the GFS, pulling northward dramatically finally
brining meaningful precipitation potential into Kansas. Despite
this spatial convergence between the models of the low`s track,
the outputs and timings of perception continue to disagree
wildly. Within this, the GFS` initiation of precipitation has
been delayed with the majority developing after moving eastward
out of the CWA. The ensembles represent a middle ground on where
rain is expected, but comparatively optimistic for much of the
area. For example, places where the ECMWF and GFS agree rain is
unlikely (western counties), ensembles have at >50%. The current
forecast is most similar to the ensemble mean, with the western
edge reduced and initial timing delayed. This all should be
taken with the understanding that either GFS or ECMWF solution
could keep most of SW Kansas dry; ECMWF only placing rain along
the KS/OK border and the GFS with rain in the northern and
eastern counties. Amounts continue to be modest among all
solutions at <0.25" while being slightly more aggressive in
potential thunderstorm coverage increasing to 20% over a wider
area. That said, any severe impacts are not expected from any
potential storms that develop.

While dealing with the complexity and uncertainty of Sunday`s
system, ensembles have another low developing and strengthening
off the West Coast. So while Monday sees warm and dry weather
similar to Saturday, Tuesday deals with yet another system, this
time with significantly stronger winds forecasted in excess of
30 mph. GFS/ECMWF/ensembles are in more agreement with this
system boasting sizable (>60%) precipitation chances across the
northern zones late Tuesday. Details on this system`s passage
are still fuzzy with multiple systems ahead of it to resolve,
but trends are increasing confidence. One notable aspect of the
forecast is whether snow from the backside of the system wraps
into our area. If this occurs, it could coalesce with lingering
high winds resulting in wintery impacts even if snow
accumulations remain minimal (<1") through the entirety of the
system. Long-ranged ensembles are already thinking about another
system towards end next week, but the discussion surrounding
that system will be tabled.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1000 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2025

North winds will gust 20-25 kts at all airports through 00z Sat,
then rapidly diminish at sunset. Otherwise, excellent flying
weather will continue this TAF period, with VFR/SKC and light
winds.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KBJ
AVIATION...Turner