387
FXUS63 KDDC 042237
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
437 PM CST Wed Dec 4 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

-  Southwest Kansas will remain dry through Sunday.

-  An unseasonably pleasant weekend is expected, with mild
   afternoon temperatures and light winds.

-  Colder air is expected early next week, along with limited
   light snow potential.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM CST Wed Dec 4 2024

A very quiet, completely dry weather regime continues with no
impacts or hazards through the weekend. A clear sky and light
north winds prevailed at midday, but with no cold advection,
afternoon temperatures will warm easily again through the 50s.

A strong 1042mb cold Canadian surface anticyclone is expected to
be centered in the Dakotas at 6 am Thursday. This fresh cold air
mass will spread over SW KS in a backdoor fashion tonight
through sunrise, with winds trending light NEly. Light northeast
winds will prevail all zones by 6 am. The onset of cold
advection under a clear sky will allow for sunrise temperatures
in the lower 20s at many locations, with probably some teens
across northeast zones. Did lower Thursday morning min temps to
near or below the coldest guidance.

The strong Canadian high will be near the Missouri Ozarks 6 pm
Thursday, with winds trending light south/southeast. As such,
eastern zones will be much cooler, struggling through the 30s,
while western zones adjacent to Colorado warm well into the 50s.

The cold air exits eastward Friday, allowing afternoon
temperatures to recover well into the 50s. A weak Rex block over
the Great Basin and Arizona Thursday, will evolve into a weak
closed cyclone over northern Mexico Saturday. This system will
be too removed for any sensible weather change for SW KS.
Indeed, all models show several degrees of additional warming
Saturday, with 850 mb temperatures near 10C supporting afternoon
temperatures well above December normals, in the lower 60s. As
an extra bonus, pressure gradients and winds will be weak,
adding to the unseasonably pleasant weekend. The weak Mexican
cyclone will eject onto the plains Sunday, weakening into an
open progressive shortwave as it does, with no SW KS impacts.
More mild afternoon temperatures and light winds will continue
Sunday.

A much stronger trough will arrive early next week, but
precipitation prospects, at least potential for measurable or
significant precipitation, for SW KS appear to be dwindling.
Progressive, positively tilted nature of the trough will
strongly work against any snowfall. All guidance has trended to
a faster, progressive, open solution. Deterministic guidance and
the majority of ensembles have lost any closed cyclone solution.
With the progressive positively tilted solution, associated
cold front and cold advection will move through SW KS rapidly,
easily by early Monday. NBM currently has 40s Monday afternoon,
but suspect this is not cold enough with strong north winds and
strong cold advection. Indeed, a non-diurnal temperature curve
downward is probable. Also with the earlier timing, any light
snow potential has moved up to Monday, with any light snow
mainly west of Dodge City late Monday in the post- frontal
upslope regime. 12z EPS ensemble probability of QPF > 0.1 inch
has fallen substantially, to only 10-20%, favoring the western
zones Monday night. Certainly not expecting much; NBM pops are
dry (pops < 15%) for this time frame, and that is probably the
best forecast for now. Cold air will persist under the
positively tilted trough through Tuesday, but this will be just
typical cold for December.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 436 PM CST Wed Dec 4 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through tomorrow with mostly clear
skies. Winds will be light and from a northerly direction
through late morning, then shift to the south with an increase
in speed tomorrow afternoon as lee troughing develops across
eastern Colorado.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Turner
AVIATION...Hovorka_42