845
FXUS63 KDDC 191043
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
443 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Increasing probability of light snow accumulations on Monday

- The coldest air of the winter season becoming more likely
  Tuesday morning

- Drier weather with warming temperatures through the rest of
  next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 206 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025

08z surface obs and upper air analysis shows a Hudson Bay low
and associated longwave trough over much of the CONUS with the
polar jet streak along the Gulf of Mexico. A large 1040 mb high
is situated over much of the northern and central plains.

Today should be another cold day for this time of year across
southwest Kansas as highs are expected to be 20 degrees colder
than the climatological average of the mid 40s. Winds should
remaining relatively light as the large surface high builds
into central Kansas by midday. This should lead to mainly sunny
skies and as winds switch to the west by late day this will
modestly warm the entrenched arctic airmass in place.

Sunday night into Monday morning a second and colder surge of
arctic air will come in from the northern plains along a trough
axis from Utah to the Great Lakes. As we approach sunrise a 700
mb shortwave will move in from the northwest and with modest
upslope and lift in the dendritic growth zone we should begin
to see light snow develop in northwest Kansas and move
southeastward towards sunrise. The snowband should move from
north to south during the day as the leading edge of the second
push of arctic air should move through western Kansas during the
afternoon. The snow is expected to be a dry and powdery snow in
the arctic airmass with models forecasting a 16-20 to 1 snow
ratio. This should keep amounts on the lighter side as SREF QPF
forecasts is in the 0.05-0.15 inch range. Snowfall output in the
various SREF ensembles are ranging from 0 on the low end to as
much as 4 inches with the mean in the 1-2 inch range. NBM and
SREF probabilities are also highest in the 1-2 inch range at
50-90% mainly along and south of a Scott City to Pratt line.
Euro and GFS ensembles are also fairly consistent with the
higher amounts of snow along and south of highway 96 as mean
snow output is around 1-2 inches. Areas in our northeast zones
will be subject to a drier wind and less lift hence areas along
the I-70 corridor will see an inch or less. Winter weather
advisory headlines are out for areas mainly along and south of
the K-96 corridor.

Monday night the brunt of the arctic air moves in and should
push out whatever lift in the dendritic growth zone we have by
around sunset. With an anomolously strong high moving in during
the night (ECWMF and NAEFS both showing max pressure compared to
climatology) this increases the confidence this will be a very
cold airmass with 850 mb temperatures in the -20 (C) range. With
the strong surface high we should expect skies to clear quickly
Monday evening and winds to fall to 5-10 mph. Despite the light
winds NBM guidance is showing at least cold weather advisory
criteria (less than -15 wind chill and/or air temperature) along
and west of highway 283. Given the high certainty of -1 in the
EFI index for low temps to be colder than relative forecast...I
went with colder guidance for lows Tuesday morning which would
put much of southwest Kansas below 0. This is further supported
by NBM probabilities of 60-100% chance of below 0 temps across
southwest Kansas.

The arctic airmass should be pushed out quickly on Tuesday as
the surface winds switch back to the west and we should have the
return of 40 degree weather by the middle and end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 441 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025

Wind speeds during the time period should generally be less
than 15 kts. Skies will start out mostly clear but we should see
increasing clouds after 00Z with an approaching storm system.
Cloud ceilings could fall to MVFR flight category around 11Z for
GCK and DDC and we could see light snow develop around GCK
after 09Z.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM CST /2 AM MST/ to 6 PM CST
/5 PM MST/ Monday for KSZ043>045-061>064-074>081-084>090.
Extreme Cold Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday morning
for KSZ043-044-061>063-074>077-084>087.
Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST /8 AM MST/ this morning
for KSZ061-074-084.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Tatro
AVIATION...Tatro