306
FXUS63 KDDC 101607
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1107 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There are high chances (60-90%) for thunderstorms tonight.

- Drier weather is predicted starting Monday.

- After cooler than average highs on Monday, a warming trend
  will start Tuesday, with highs returning to the 90s for late
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 242 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

An upper level trough over the Rockies will progress eastward
today and approach the high plains this evening. Mid level
cooling will occur across eastern Colorado by afternoon; and
this coupled with post frontal moisture and elevated heating
will result in thunderstorm development by mid afternoon. These
storms will form into a line with cold pool development and the
line with will sweep across southwest Kansas between 8 pm CDT
(Coolidge KS) to Stafford (1 am). Wind gusts as high as 60 mph
are possible with this storm line. Locally heavy rain is
predicted; but the fast moving nature of the line should limit
amounts to 2" or less. Therefore, a flood watch was not issued.
The various ensemble means (of course) show a smoothed rainfall
field, with amounts around .5" to .75". However, we know that
summertime rainfall across southwest Kansas tends to vary
greatly, with much higher amounts occurring with the strongest
and prolonged storms. The ensemble means show 10-30% chances for
1" or more of rain. In the post frontal air, highs today will
be in the 80s to mid 90s, with warmest readings at Medicine
Lodge.

The effective frontal boundary will be south of Kansas by
Monday; and this should keep any thunderstorms to the south of
the state line. Expect cooler than average highs in the lower to
upper 80s, with the warmest readings at Medicine Lodge. A slow
warming trend can be expected starting Tuesday as the upper
level trough progresses east and 500mb heights rise across the
plains. Highs will reach back into the 90s by Thursday and
continuing through the weekend. Given the upper level ridging
across the plains, t-storms are not forecasted. The various
ensemble guidances hint at a weakening of the upper level ridge
by next weekend, with mid to high level westerlies developing.
This would increase convergence along a surface trough in the
lee of the Rockies, resulting in small t-storm chances.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1105 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

VFR conditions will prevail in vicinity of all TAF sites through
late evening. Thunderstorms developing across the high plains of
eastern Colorado this afternoon are expected to spread eastward into
extreme western Kansas this evening, then farther east across southwest
Kansas into central Kansas overnight, potentially affecting all TAF
sites generally after 03-05Z with heavy rain and strong outflow winds.
Light east-northeast winds are expected through mid/late evening
just north of a stalled frontal boundary anchored from the Texas
Panhandle eastward through western Oklahoma.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Finch
AVIATION...JJohnson