497
ACUS48 KWNS 080818
SWOD48
SPC AC 080817

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0317 AM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025

Valid 111200Z - 161200Z

...DISCUSSION...
The overall current large-scale pattern will persist through this
forecast period, albeit with minor day-to-day variations. More
specifically, a mid-level ridge will persist across the western US,
although its center will meander from the Southwest US to off the
coast of California and back; a series of shortwave troughs of
varying intensity will quickly move across the northern Plains; and
a very warm, moist environment will remain entrenched across the
eastern US.

This overall pattern suggests episodic bouts of severe thunderstorms
on any given day. However, the timing and location of specific
episodes will be tied to mesoscale details and impacts from prior
days` convection which have low predictability on time scales of
this forecast period. As such, low confidence in the details of
required to identify any of these severe events currently precludes
any probabilistic delineation at this time.

That said, there are a couple of scenarios being monitored for
potential future highlights. The first is the potential for severe
storms across the southern Plains on Saturday or Sunday associated
with a residual boundary/front. However, impacts from a potential
overnight mesoscale convective system moving from the High Plains
into the Southern Plains on Friday night into Saturday lead to
little confidence in the placement of any boundaries and the
resulting severe potential.

Another potential is for severe convection across northern Minnesota
and the Upper Great Lakes early next week associated with a stronger
shortwave trough moving through southern Canada. However, guidance
continues to show high variance regarding the strength of moisture
return, degree of instability, and timing of the shortwave itself to
preclude unconditional severe probabilities at this time.

..Marsh.. 07/08/2025