324
ACUS48 KWNS 300840
SWOD48
SPC AC 300839

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0339 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024

Valid 031200Z - 081200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Potential for severe weather continues to appear limited on Thursday
and Friday as upper-level flow will remain primarily zonal across
the CONUS along with a surface pattern that will not promote
northward advection of moisture. By the weekend, the predictability
of the upper-level pattern begins to decrease quickly. Both the GFS
and ECMWF show flow trying to amplify in the northern half of the
CONUS. However, the wave pattern between the two models is out of
phase. The ECMWF would suggest at least some low potential for
severe weather, given a greater southward advancement of an upper
trough this weekend into early next week. Even if this evolution is
to verify, this severe potential would be conditional on the
magnitude and quality of moisture return after another front moves
into the Gulf Coast region late next week.

..Wendt.. 09/30/2024