788
ACUS48 KWNS 160901
SWOD48
SPC AC 160900

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0400 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025

Valid 191200Z - 241200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...D4/Monday - Central/Southern Plains into the Midwest...
A very moist and unstable environment will be present east of a
dryline across Kansas and Oklahoma on Monday morning. A surface low
across Kansas/Nebraska will weaken through the day and reconcentrate
farther south as a negatively tilted mid-level shortwave trough
moves into the central/southern Plains. The evolution of the upper
pattern will have some impact on the location and severity of the
severe weather threat on Monday. Despite these uncertainties, height
falls across a sharp dryline with a strongly unstable and uncapped
warm sector and supercell wind profiles should support severe storms
along and east of I-35 in Oklahoma and into southeast Kansas. All
severe weather hazards will be possible from any supercells which
mature on Monday.

Storms will be possible farther north across eastern Kansas and
western Missouri, but storm intensity is less clear given weaker
instability and messier storm mode along the warm frontal zone. In
addition, some elevated hail will be possible north of the warm
front into southeast Nebraska and Iowa.

...D5/Tuesday...
Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period
across the Midwest and perhaps as far south as eastern Oklahoma and
western Arkansas. These storms and their associated cloud cover will
have significant impact on destabilization across a broad warm
sector on Tuesday. A deepening mid-level low will develop across the
Plains and start to advance east on Tuesday. A strong mid-level jet
streak along the southern periphery of this upper low will
overspread the warm sector providing ample shear for storm
organization. Storm intensity remains uncertain on Tuesday due to
antecedent precipitation/cloud cover and differences in model
guidance. However, a broad region of strong to severe storms appears
possible from East Texas to northern Missouri and central Illinois
on Tuesday.

...Day 6-8...
A few strong to severe storms are possible on Day 6/Wednesday across
the Carolinas before the cold front moves offshore. Storm
coverage/intensity remains unclear at this time given the prior 2
days of storms and uncertainties in the upper-level pattern from
global guidance. Therefore, no probabilities are warranted at this
time. Beyond Day 6, severe weather concerns lessen as quality
moisture is mostly shunted offshore across the CONUS as a cold front
surges into the Gulf/Atlantic.

..Bentley.. 05/16/2025