548
ACUS48 KWNS 060855
SWOD48
SPC AC 060854

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0354 AM CDT Wed Aug 06 2025

Valid 091200Z - 141200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Saturday/Day 4 to Monday/Day 6...
A mid-level trough will move across the northern Plains on Saturday,
as a cold front advances southeastward into the upper Mississippi
and mid Missouri Valleys. Moderate to strong instability should be
in place ahead of the front by afternoon from eastern Nebraska
northeastward into Wisconsin. Thunderstorm development is expected
to take place along parts of the front from the afternoon into the
evening, with the greatest convective coverage over the upper
Mississippi Valley. A few storms could be severe, with large hail
and isolated damaging wind gusts expected to be the primary threats.


On Sunday, another mid-level trough is forecast to move into the
central and northern Plains, as a moist and unstable airmass remains
in place ahead of the front from the mid Missouri Valley
northeastward upper Mississippi Valley. Thunderstorms will again be
possible ahead of the trough near an axis of moderate instability
during the afternoon and evening. Some model forecasts suggest the
strongest instability will not be co-located with the greatest
convective potential. Although a severe threat may develop across
parts of the region, this would negatively affect severe threat
magnitude.

The mid-level trough is forecast to shift eastward across the
north-central U.S. on Monday, as a cold front advances southeastward
across the central Plains and Upper Midwest. Isolated severe
thunderstorms will again be possible ahead of the front near an axis
of moderate instability. However, large-scale ascent will be
somewhat limited across much of the region, suggesting the
convective potential and resulting severe threat should remain
isolated.

...Tuesday/Day 7 and Wednesday/Day 8...
From Tuesday into Wednesday, the mid-level trough and an associated
cold front is forecast to advance eastward from the north-central
U.S. into the Northeast. Along and ahead of the front each afternoon
and evening, strong thunderstorms will be possible. However, the
models are forecasting less instability and a more disorganized
pattern compared to previous days, suggesting that any severe threat
will remain localized.

..Broyles.. 08/06/2025