243
ACUS48 KWNS 240840
SWOD48
SPC AC 240838

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0338 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

Valid 271200Z - 011200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Wednesday/Day 4 to Friday/Day 6...
On Wednesday, a large-scale cyclonic flow pattern is forecast to
remain over the north-central and northeastern U.S., as a mid-level
ridge remains over the southern and central Rockies. Low-level
moisture return is forecast over the southern and central Plains,
where an axis of instability should set up from west Texas into
eastern Colorado by afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms may develop
from near the instability axis eastward across Kansas from late
afternoon into the evening. Weak instability should keep any severe
potential localized.

On Thursday, an axis of moderate instability is forecast to develop
by afternoon across east Texas and eastern Oklahoma. As a mid-level
shortwave trough moves southeastward across the region, isolated
scattered thunderstorms will be possible over much eastern Oklahoma
extending eastward into the Ozarks. Instability and deep-layer shear
should be enough for a marginal severe threat in these areas. This
potential is forecast to shift southward into southeast Texas on
Friday, as a cold front advances toward the Gulf Coast.

...Saturday/Day 7 and Sunday/Day 8...
On Saturday and Sunday, a mid-level ridge is forecast over the
western U.S., as northwesterly flow remains over much of the central
and eastern U.S. An axis of instability may develop over parts of
the southern and central High Plains each afternoon, where isolated
thunderstorms will be possible. Any severe threat associated with
the storms is expected to be localized.

..Broyles.. 08/24/2025